McQuaid Christopher Finn, Gilligan Christopher Aidan, van den Bosch Frank
Computational and Systems Biology, Rothamsted Research, West Common, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, UK.
Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK.
R Soc Open Sci. 2017 Dec 6;4(12):170721. doi: 10.1098/rsos.170721. eCollection 2017 Dec.
The success or failure of a disease control strategy can be significantly affected by the behaviour of individual agents involved, influencing the effectiveness of disease control, its cost and sustainability. This behaviour has rarely been considered in agricultural systems, where there is significant opportunity for impact. Efforts to increase the adoption of control while decreasing oscillations in adoption and yield, particularly through the administration of subsidies, could increase the effectiveness of interventions. We study individual behaviour for the deployment of clean seed systems to control cassava brown streak disease in East Africa, noting that high disease pressure is important to stimulate grower demand of the control strategy. We show that it is not necessary to invest heavily in formal promotional or educational campaigns, as word-of-mouth is often sufficient to endorse the system. At the same time, for improved planting material to have an impact on increasing yields, it needs to be of a sufficient standard to restrict epidemic spread significantly. Finally, even a simple subsidy of clean planting material may be effective in disease control, as well as reducing oscillations in adoption, as long as it reaches a range of different users every season.
疾病控制策略的成败会受到相关个体行为的显著影响,进而影响疾病控制的效果、成本和可持续性。在农业系统中,这种行为很少被考虑,而农业系统中存在显著的影响机会。特别是通过提供补贴来增加控制措施的采用率,同时减少采用率和产量的波动,可能会提高干预措施的有效性。我们研究了在东非部署清洁种子系统以控制木薯褐色条纹病的个体行为,注意到高病害压力对于刺激种植者对控制策略的需求很重要。我们表明,没有必要在正式的推广或教育活动上大量投入,因为口碑往往足以认可该系统。同时,为了使改良种植材料对提高产量产生影响,它需要达到足够的标准以显著限制疫情传播。最后,只要每个季节能覆盖不同的用户群体,即使是简单的清洁种植材料补贴在疾病控制以及减少采用率波动方面也可能是有效的。