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建模人类行为对传染病传播的影响:综述。

Modelling the influence of human behaviour on the spread of infectious diseases: a review.

机构信息

School of Biological Sciences, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK.

出版信息

J R Soc Interface. 2010 Sep 6;7(50):1247-56. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2010.0142. Epub 2010 May 26.

Abstract

Human behaviour plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases, and understanding the influence of behaviour on the spread of diseases can be key to improving control efforts. While behavioural responses to the spread of a disease have often been reported anecdotally, there has been relatively little systematic investigation into how behavioural changes can affect disease dynamics. Mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases are an important tool for investigating and quantifying such effects, not least because the spread of a disease among humans is not amenable to direct experimental study. Here, we review recent efforts to incorporate human behaviour into disease models, and propose that such models can be broadly classified according to the type and source of information which individuals are assumed to base their behaviour on, and according to the assumed effects of such behaviour. We highlight recent advances as well as gaps in our understanding of the interplay between infectious disease dynamics and human behaviour, and suggest what kind of data taking efforts would be helpful in filling these gaps.

摘要

人类行为在传染病的传播中起着重要作用,了解行为对疾病传播的影响可能是改善控制工作的关键。虽然人们经常有报道行为对疾病传播的反应,但对于行为变化如何影响疾病动态,系统的研究相对较少。传染病传播的数学模型是研究和量化这种影响的重要工具,尤其是因为人类之间疾病的传播不适宜直接进行实验研究。在这里,我们回顾了最近将人类行为纳入疾病模型的努力,并提出可以根据个体行为所依据的信息类型和来源,以及这种行为的假设效果,对这些模型进行广泛分类。我们强调了我们对传染病动态和人类行为之间相互作用的理解的最新进展和差距,并提出了什么样的数据收集工作将有助于填补这些差距。

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