Maximal Predictability Approach for Identifying the Right Descriptors for Electrocatalytic Reactions.

Density functional theory (DFT) calculations are being routinely used to identify new material candidates that approach activity near fundamental limits imposed by thermodynamics or scaling relations. DFT calculations are associated with inherent uncertainty, which limits the ability to delineate materials (distinguishability) that possess high activity. Development of error-estimation capabilities in DFT has enabled uncertainty propagation through activity-prediction models. In this work, we demonstrate an approach to propagating uncertainty through thermodynamic activity models leading to a probability distribution of the computed activity and thereby its expectation value. A new metric, prediction efficiency, is defined, which provides a quantitative measure of the ability to distinguish activity of materials and can be used to identify the optimal descriptor(s) ΔG. We demonstrate the framework for four important electrochemical reactions: hydrogen evolution, chlorine evolution, oxygen reduction and oxygen evolution. Future studies could utilize expected activity and prediction efficiency to significantly improve the prediction accuracy of highly active material candidates.