Doecke Sam D, Kloeden Craig N, Dutschke Jeffrey K, Baldock Matthew R J
a Centre for Automotive Safety Research, The University of Adelaide , Adelaide , Australia.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2018 May 19;19(4):404-408. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2017.1422601. Epub 2018 Apr 11.
The objective of this article is to provide empirical evidence for safe speed limits that will meet the objectives of the Safe System by examining the relationship between speed limit and injury severity for different crash types, using police-reported crash data.
Police-reported crashes from 2 Australian jurisdictions were used to calculate a fatal crash rate by speed limit and crash type. Example safe speed limits were defined using threshold risk levels.
A positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatality rate was found. For an example fatality rate threshold of 1 in 100 crashes it was found that safe speed limits are 40 km/h for pedestrian crashes; 50 km/h for head-on crashes; 60 km/h for hit fixed object crashes; 80 km/h for right angle, right turn, and left road/rollover crashes; and 110 km/h or more for rear-end crashes.
The positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatal crash rate is consistent with prior research into speed and crash risk. The results indicate that speed zones of 100 km/h or more only meet the objectives of the Safe System, with regard to fatal crashes, where all crash types except rear-end crashes are exceedingly rare, such as on a high standard restricted access highway with a safe roadside design.
本文的目的是通过使用警方报告的撞车数据,研究不同撞车类型的限速与伤害严重程度之间的关系,为符合安全系统目标的安全限速提供实证依据。
利用澳大利亚两个司法管辖区警方报告的撞车事故,按限速和撞车类型计算致命撞车率。使用阈值风险水平定义示例安全限速。
发现限速与死亡率之间呈正指数关系。例如,对于每100起撞车事故中有1起死亡的死亡率阈值,发现行人撞车事故的安全限速为40公里/小时;正面撞车事故为50公里/小时;撞上固定物体撞车事故为60公里/小时;直角、右转和左侧道路/翻车撞车事故为80公里/小时;追尾撞车事故为110公里/小时或更高。
限速与致命撞车率之间的正指数关系与先前对速度和撞车风险的研究一致。结果表明,100公里/小时或更高的限速区域仅在致命撞车事故方面符合安全系统的目标,在这种情况下,除追尾撞车事故外的所有撞车类型都极为罕见,例如在具有安全路边设计的高标准限制进入高速公路上。