Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Sovereign Border Solutions, Cape Town, South Africa.
Tob Control. 2018 Nov;27(6):706-708. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2017-053970. Epub 2018 Jan 24.
In anticipation of the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products (ITP) entering into force in 2018, there is a growing demand for information on track and trace (T&T) solutions for tobacco products. This article contrasts the efficacy of Codentify from the perspective of authentication with that of material-based multilayered security technologies.
To calculate the probability of detecting one fraudulent pack under Codentify, we relied on a modified Bernoulli trial experiment with independent repeated sampling without replenishment. The probability is calculated using a multinomial distribution formula adjusted for the fact that both legitimate and non-legitimate packs may be sold in the market.
In a relatively small market, a law enforcement authority would have to inspect over 27 000 (almost 31 000) packs per week to have a 90% (95%) certainty that it did not miss a fraudulent pack under the Codentify system. A material based T&T solution would require only 45 (59) pack inspections a week to have the same level of confidence.
This study demonstrates the inefficiency of Codentify compared to other solutions that incorporate material-based security features. Signatories to the ITP should reject Codentify due to both its low efficacy and its clear violation of the ITP's requirement that T&T shall not be performed by or delegated to the tobacco industry or its front groups.
随着 2018 年《烟草制品非法贸易议定书》的生效，人们对烟草制品可追溯性解决方案的信息需求日益增长。本文从认证角度对比了 Codentify 与基于材料的多层安全技术的功效。
为计算 Codentify 检测到一个假冒包装的概率，我们依赖于具有独立重复抽样而无补充的修正伯努利试验。使用调整后的多项分布公式进行计算，以考虑到合法和非合法包装都可能在市场上销售的事实。
在一个相对较小的市场中，执法机构每周必须检查超过 27000（近 31000）个包装，才能有 90%（95%）的把握在 Codentify 系统下不会错过一个假冒包装。基于材料的 T&T 解决方案每周只需要进行 45（59）次包装检查就能达到相同的置信水平。
本研究表明，Codentify 与其他纳入基于材料的安全功能的解决方案相比效率较低。《议定书》的签署方应拒绝 Codentify，因为它不仅功效低，而且明显违反了《议定书》的要求，即 T&T 不得由烟草业或其前团体执行或委托给它们执行。
