Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
Department of Ornamental Plants, Research Center for Plant Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
Plant Signal Behav. 2021 Jul 3;16(7):1913311. doi: 10.1080/15592324.2021.1913311. Epub 2021 Apr 17.
There is extensive evidence showing the impact of climate change on the biology and biogeography of species. Adopting drought-tolerant plants to conserve water is a potential adaptation to reduce the consequences of climate change. Accordingly, it was hypothesized that climate change would not affect potential distributions of drought-tolerant species. Here, this hypothesis was tested to model the potential distribution of three drought-resistant plant. Here, the potential distribution of , and was studied in Iran under current and future climate conditions, using 10 species distribution models. Sixty-two climate change scenarios (19 global climate models (GCMs) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)) were used to model the potential distribution of the three plants in Iran in the future. The three species have different responses to predicted climate change due to species-environment interactions, species morphological and physiological advancement. The three species showed different responses to predicted climate change due to species-environment interactions. and will, respectively, experience the most and least severe decline in suitable habitats in the next 50 years. This result is because decreased annual precipitation caused an increase in habitat suitability for , while the same variable had the opposite effect for and . On the other hand, grows on moist soils that decreased annual precipitation caused a decrease in habitat suitability. Also, our results have clearly shown that plant species drought-stress tolerant are not immune to climate change and their current distributions undergo significant changes as a result of the changing of climate.
有大量证据表明，气候变化对物种的生物学和生物地理学产生了影响。采用耐旱植物来节约用水是一种潜在的适应策略，可以减轻气候变化的后果。因此，有人假设气候变化不会影响耐旱物种的潜在分布。在这里，我们检验了这一假设，以模型三种耐旱植物的潜在分布。在这里，我们研究了伊朗当前和未来气候条件下三种耐旱植物的潜在分布，使用了 10 种物种分布模型。采用 62 个气候变化情景（19 个全球气候模型（GCMs）在四种代表性浓度路径（RCPs）下），对未来伊朗三种植物的潜在分布进行了建模。由于物种-环境相互作用、物种形态和生理进化，这三个物种对预测的气候变化有不同的响应。由于物种-环境相互作用，这三个物种对预测的气候变化有不同的响应。和将分别经历未来 50 年内适宜栖息地最严重和最不严重的下降。这是因为年降水量减少导致对栖息地适宜性增加，而对于和，相同的变量则产生相反的影响。另一方面，生长在湿润土壤上，年降水量减少导致栖息地适宜性下降。此外，我们的结果清楚地表明，植物物种耐旱性并不对气候变化免疫，其当前分布由于气候变化而发生重大变化。
