Brettin Andrew, Rossi-Goldthorpe Rosa, Weishaar Kyle, Erovenko Igor V
Department of Mathematics, University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA.
Department of Mathematics, Bowdoin College, Brunswick, ME 04011, USA.
R Soc Open Sci. 2018 Jan 24;5(1):171591. doi: 10.1098/rsos.171591. eCollection 2018 Jan.
Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a severe infection with an extremely high fatality rate spread through direct contact with body fluids. A promising Ebola vaccine (rVSV-ZEBOV) may soon become universally available. We constructed a game-theoretic model of Ebola incorporating individual decisions to vaccinate. We found that if a population adopts selfishly optimal vaccination strategies, then the population vaccination coverage falls negligibly short of the herd immunity level. We concluded that eradication of Ebola is feasible if voluntary vaccination programmes are coupled with focused public education efforts. We conducted uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to demonstrate that our findings do not depend on the choice of the epidemiological model parameters.
埃博拉病毒病(EVD)是一种严重感染,致死率极高,通过直接接触体液传播。一种有前景的埃博拉疫苗(rVSV-ZEBOV)可能很快会普遍可得。我们构建了一个纳入个体疫苗接种决策的埃博拉博弈论模型。我们发现,如果一个群体采取自私的最优疫苗接种策略,那么群体疫苗接种覆盖率略低于群体免疫水平。我们得出结论,如果自愿疫苗接种计划与有针对性的公众教育努力相结合,埃博拉的根除是可行的。我们进行了不确定性和敏感性分析,以证明我们的研究结果不依赖于流行病学模型参数的选择。