Ahmad W, Abbas M, Rafiq M, Baleanu D
Department of Mathematics, GC University, Lahore, Pakistan.
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Central Punjab Lahore, Pakistan.
Results Phys. 2021 Dec;31:104917. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104917. Epub 2021 Oct 23.
In this manuscript, a new nonlinear model for the rapidly spreading Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is developed. We incorporate an additional class of vaccinated humans which ascertains the impact of vaccination strategy for susceptible humans. A complete mathematical analysis of this model is conducted to predict the dynamics of Corona virus in the population. The analysis proves the effectiveness of vaccination strategy employed and helps public health services to control or to reduce the burden of corona virus pandemic. We first prove the existence and uniqueness and then boundedness and positivity of solutions. Threshold parameter for the vaccination model is computed analytically. Stability of the proposed model at fixed points is investigated analytically with the help of threshold parameter to examine epidemiological relevance of the pandemic. We apply LaSalle's invariance principle from the theory of Lyapunov function to prove the global stability of both the equilibria. Two well known numerical techniques namely Runge-Kutta method of order 4 (RK4), and the Non-Standard Finite Difference (NSFD) method are employed to solve the system of ODE's and to validate our obtained theoretical results. For different coverage levels of voluntary vaccination, we explored a complete quantitative analysis of the model. To draw our conclusions, the effect of proposed vaccination on threshold parameter is studied numerically. It is claimed that Corona virus disease could be eradicated faster if a human community selfishly adopts mandatory vaccination measures at various coverage levels with proper awareness. Finally, we have executed the joint variability of all classes to understand the effect of vaccination strategy on a disease dynamics.
在本手稿中,我们建立了一个用于快速传播的冠状病毒病(COVID - 19)的新非线性模型。我们纳入了一类额外的已接种疫苗人群,以确定疫苗接种策略对易感人群的影响。对该模型进行了完整的数学分析,以预测人群中冠状病毒的动态。分析证明了所采用的疫苗接种策略的有效性,并有助于公共卫生服务部门控制或减轻冠状病毒大流行的负担。我们首先证明了解的存在性、唯一性,然后证明了解的有界性和正性。通过解析计算得出疫苗接种模型的阈值参数。借助阈值参数对所提出模型在固定点的稳定性进行解析研究,以检验该大流行的流行病学相关性。我们应用李雅普诺夫函数理论中的拉萨尔不变性原理来证明两个平衡点的全局稳定性。采用两种著名的数值技术,即四阶龙格 - 库塔方法(RK4)和非标准有限差分(NSFD)方法来求解常微分方程组,并验证我们得到的理论结果。对于不同的自愿疫苗接种覆盖率水平,我们对模型进行了完整的定量分析。为得出结论,我们对所提出的疫苗接种对阈值参数的影响进行了数值研究。据称,如果人类社区在有适当认知的情况下,在不同覆盖率水平上自私地采取强制疫苗接种措施,冠状病毒病可以更快地被根除。最后,我们执行了所有类别的联合变异性分析,以了解疫苗接种策略对疾病动态的影响。