Department of Geography, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria; CGIAR Research Programmed on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya.
CGIAR Research Programmed on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Jul 15;630:728-737. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.196. Epub 2018 Feb 27.
This paper examines drought characteristics as an evidence of climate change in two agro-climatic zones of Nigeria and farmers' climate change perceptions of impacts and adaptation strategies. The results show high spatial and temporal rainfall variability for the stations. Consequently, there are several anomalies in rainfall in recent years but much more in the locations around the Guinea savanna. The inter-station and seasonality statistics reveal less variable and wetter early growing seasons and late growing seasons in the Rainforest zone, and more variable and drier growing seasons in other stations. The probability (p) of dry spells exceeding 3, 5 and 10 consecutive days is very high with 0.62≤p≥0.8 in all the stations, though, the p-values for 10day spells drop below 0.6 in Ibadan and Osogbo. The results further show that rainfall is much more reliable from the month of May until July with the coefficient of variance for rainy days <0.30, but less reliable in the months of March, August and October (CV-RD>0.30), though CV-RD appears higher in the month of August for all the stations. It is apparent that farmers' perceptions of drought fundamentally mirror climatic patterns from historical weather data. The study concludes that the adaptation facilities and equipment, hybrids of crops and animals are to be provided to farmers, at a subsidized price by the government, for them to cope with the current condition of climate change.
本文考察了尼日利亚两个农业气候区的干旱特征，作为气候变化的证据，以及农民对气候变化影响和适应策略的认知。结果表明，各站点的降雨量具有高度的时空可变性。因此，近年来出现了多次降雨异常，尤其是在几内亚草原地区更为明显。站点间和季节性统计数据显示，在雨林区的早期和晚期生长季节降雨变化较小且更为湿润，而其他站点的生长季节则变化更大且更为干燥。所有站点的连续 3 天、5 天和 10 天以上干旱期的概率（p）都非常高，0.62≤p≥0.8，尽管在伊巴丹和奥索博的 10 天干旱期的 p 值低于 0.6。结果还表明，从 5 月到 7 月，降雨更为可靠，雨天的变异系数（CV-RD）<0.30，但在 3 月、8 月和 10 月（CV-RD>0.30）可靠性较低，尽管所有站点的 8 月 CV-RD 都较高。显然，农民对干旱的认知从根本上反映了历史气象数据中的气候模式。研究结论认为，政府应以补贴价格向农民提供适应设施和设备、作物和动物的杂交品种，以帮助他们应对当前的气候变化状况。
