Department of Animal Science, North Carolina State University, Raleigh 27695-7621.
USDA Agricultural Research Service, US Meat Animal Research Center, Clay Center, NE 68933.
J Dairy Sci. 2018 May;101(5):3722-3741. doi: 10.3168/jds.2017-14025. Epub 2018 Mar 1.
The world's population will reach 10.4 billion in 2067, with 81% residing in Africa or Asia. Arable land available for food production will decrease to 0.15 ha per person. Temperature will increase in tropical and temperate zones, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, and this will push growing seasons and dairy farming away from arid areas and into more northern latitudes. Dairy consumption will increase because it provides essential nutrients more efficiently than many other agricultural systems. Dairy farming will become modernized in developing countries and milk production per cow will increase, doubling in countries with advanced dairying systems. Profitability of dairy farms will be the key to their sustainability. Genetic improvements will include emphasis on the coding genome and associated noncoding epigenome of cattle, and on microbiomes of dairy cattle and farmsteads. Farm sizes will increase and there will be greater lateral integration of housing and management of dairy cattle of different ages and production stages. Integrated sensors, robotics, and automation will replace much of the manual labor on farms. Managing the epigenome and microbiome will become part of routine herd management. Innovations in dairy facilities will improve the health of cows and permit expression of natural behaviors. Herds will be viewed as superorganisms, and studies of herds as observational units will lead to improvements in productivity, health, and well-being of dairy cattle, and improve the agroecology and sustainability of dairy farms. Dairy farmers in 2067 will meet the world's needs for essential nutrients by adopting technologies and practices that provide improved cow health and longevity, profitable dairy farms, and sustainable agriculture.
到 2067 年，世界人口将达到 104 亿，其中 81%将居住在非洲或亚洲。可用于粮食生产的耕地将减少到每人 0.15 公顷。热带和温带地区的温度将升高，尤其是在北半球，这将使种植季节和奶牛养殖远离干旱地区，进入更北的纬度。由于乳制品比许多其他农业系统更有效地提供必需营养，因此乳制品的消费将会增加。发展中国家的奶牛养殖业将实现现代化，每头奶牛的牛奶产量将会增加，在拥有先进奶牛养殖系统的国家，牛奶产量将增加一倍。奶牛场的盈利能力将是其可持续性的关键。遗传改良将包括强调牛的编码基因组和相关的非编码表观基因组，以及奶牛和养殖场的微生物组。农场规模将扩大，不同年龄和生产阶段的奶牛的住房和管理将更加横向整合。集成传感器、机器人和自动化将取代农场的大量体力劳动。管理表观基因组和微生物组将成为常规牛群管理的一部分。奶牛养殖场的创新将改善奶牛的健康状况，并允许其表现出自然行为。牛群将被视为超个体，对牛群的研究将作为观测单位，从而提高奶牛的生产力、健康和福利水平，并改善奶牛养殖场的农业生态和可持续性。到 2067 年，奶牛养殖者将通过采用提高奶牛健康和寿命、盈利性奶牛场和可持续农业的技术和实践，满足世界对必需营养的需求。
