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肯尼亚中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒潜在扩增与传播热点地区测绘

Mapping Potential Amplification and Transmission Hotspots for MERS-CoV, Kenya.

作者信息

Gikonyo Stephen, Kimani Tabitha, Matere Joseph, Kimutai Joshua, Kiambi Stella G, Bitek Austine O, Juma Ngeiywa K J Z, Makonnen Yilma J, Tripodi Astrid, Morzaria Subhash, Lubroth Juan, Rugalema Gabriel, Fasina Folorunso Oludayo

机构信息

Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases - (ECTAD) Kenya, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), UN Office in Nairobi, Gigiri, Kenya.

Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases - (ECTAD), Regional Office for East Africa Kenya, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), UN Office in Nairobi, Gigiri, Kenya.

出版信息

Ecohealth. 2018 Jun;15(2):372-387. doi: 10.1007/s10393-018-1317-6. Epub 2018 Mar 16.

Abstract

Dromedary camels have been implicated consistently as the source of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) human infections and attention to prevent and control it has focused on camels. To understanding the epidemiological role of camels in the transmission of MERS-CoV, we utilized an iterative empirical process in Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify and qualify potential hotspots for maintenance and circulation of MERS-CoV, and produced risk-based surveillance sites in Kenya. Data on camel population and distribution were used to develop camel density map, while camel farming system was defined using multi-factorial criteria including the agro-ecological zones (AEZs), production and marketing practices. Primary and secondary MERS-CoV seroprevalence data from specific sites were analyzed, and location-based prevalence matching with camel densities was conducted. High-risk convergence points (migration zones, trade routes, camel markets, slaughter slabs) were profiled and frequent cross-border camel movement mapped. Results showed that high camel-dense areas and interaction (markets and migration zones) were potential hotspot for transmission and spread. Cross-border contacts occurred with in-migrated herds at hotspot locations. AEZ differential did not influence risk distribution and plausible risk factors for spatial MERS-CoV hotspots were camel densities, previous cases of MERS-CoV, high seroprevalence and points of camel convergences. Although Kenyan camels are predisposed to MERS-CoV, no shedding is documented to date. These potential hotspots, determined using anthropogenic, system and trade characterizations should guide selection of sampling/surveillance sites, high-risk locations, critical areas for interventions and policy development in Kenya, as well as instigate further virological examination of camels.

摘要

单峰骆驼一直被认为是中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒(MERS-CoV)人类感染的源头,预防和控制该病毒的工作重点也集中在骆驼身上。为了解骆驼在MERS-CoV传播中的流行病学作用,我们在地理信息系统(GIS)中采用迭代实证过程,以识别和确定MERS-CoV维持和传播的潜在热点地区,并在肯尼亚建立基于风险的监测点。利用骆驼种群和分布数据绘制骆驼密度图,同时使用包括农业生态区(AEZs)、生产和销售方式等多因素标准来定义骆驼养殖系统。分析了特定地点的MERS-CoV血清阳性率的一级和二级数据,并将基于地点的患病率与骆驼密度进行匹配。对高风险汇聚点(迁徙区、贸易路线、骆驼市场、屠宰场)进行了分析,并绘制了频繁的跨境骆驼移动路线图。结果表明,骆驼高密度地区以及互动区域(市场和迁徙区)是病毒传播和扩散的潜在热点。在热点地区,跨境接触发生在迁入的畜群中。农业生态区差异并不影响风险分布,MERS-CoV空间热点的合理风险因素包括骆驼密度、既往MERS-CoV病例、高血清阳性率以及骆驼汇聚点。尽管肯尼亚的骆驼易感染MERS-CoV,但迄今为止尚无排毒记录。这些通过人为、系统和贸易特征确定的潜在热点地区,应指导肯尼亚采样/监测点的选择、高风险地点、关键干预区域和政策制定,同时也应促使对骆驼进行进一步的病毒学检查。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3337/7088189/e27f5d05abf5/10393_2018_1317_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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