Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
Neonatal Unit, University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust, Leicester, UK.
Arch Dis Child Fetal Neonatal Ed. 2019 Mar;104(2):F182-F186. doi: 10.1136/archdischild-2017-314405. Epub 2018 Mar 27.
To predict length of stay in neonatal care for all admissions of very preterm singleton babies.
All neonatal units in England.
Singleton babies born at 24-31 weeks gestational age from 2011 to 2014. Data were extracted from the National Neonatal Research Database.
Competing risks methods were used to investigate the competing outcomes of death in neonatal care or discharge from the neonatal unit. The occurrence of one event prevents the other from occurring. This approach can be used to estimate the percentage of babies alive, or who have been discharged, over time.
A total of 20 571 very preterm babies were included. In the competing risks model, gestational age was adjusted for as a time-varying covariate, allowing the difference between weeks of gestational age to vary over time. The predicted percentage of death or discharge from the neonatal unit were estimated and presented graphically by week of gestational age. From these percentages, estimates of length of stay are provided as the number of days following birth and corrected gestational age at discharge.
These results can be used in the counselling of parents about length of stay and the risk of mortality.
预测所有 24-31 孕周极早产儿单胎新生儿的住院时间。
英格兰所有新生儿病房。
2011 年至 2014 年间出生的 24-31 孕周的单胎婴儿。数据来自国家新生儿研究数据库。
采用竞争风险方法分析新生儿期死亡或新生儿病房出院的竞争结局。一个事件的发生阻止了另一个事件的发生。这种方法可以用来估计随着时间的推移存活或出院的婴儿的百分比。
共纳入 20571 例极早产儿。在竞争风险模型中，将胎龄作为随时间变化的协变量进行调整，允许胎龄周数的差异随时间变化。预测死亡或出院的新生儿病房的百分比，并按胎龄周数以图形方式呈现。根据这些百分比，以出生后天数和出院时校正胎龄的形式提供住院时间估计值。
这些结果可用于向父母提供关于住院时间和死亡率风险的咨询。
