Hart Christopher J, Kelly Ryan P, Pearson Scott F
School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America.
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Olympia, WA, United States of America.
PeerJ. 2018 Mar 22;6:e4519. doi: 10.7717/peerj.4519. eCollection 2018.
Tufted Puffin () populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US. While there remains no consensus on the mechanisms driving these trends, population decreases in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem suggest climate-related factors, and in particular the indirect influence of sea-surface temperature on puffin prey. Here, we use three species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate projected shifts in habitat suitable for Tufted Puffin nesting for the year 2050 under two future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Ensemble model results indicate warming marine and terrestrial temperatures play a key role in the loss of suitable Tufted Puffin nesting conditions in the California Current under both business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) and moderated (RCP 4.5) carbon emission scenarios, and in particular, that mean summer sea-surface temperatures greater than 15 °C are likely to make habitat unsuitable for breeding. Under both emission scenarios, ensemble model results suggest that more than 92% of currently suitable nesting habitat in the California Current is likely to become unsuitable. Moreover, the models suggest a net loss of greater than 21% of suitable nesting sites throughout the entire North American range of the Tufted Puffin, regardless of emission-reduction strategies. These model results highlight continued Tufted Puffin declines-particularly among southern breeding colonies-and indicate a significant risk of near-term extirpation in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem.
自19世纪中叶以来，簇羽海鹦种群数量在该物种分布范围的南部急剧下降，导致公民团体向美国鱼类和野生动物管理局（USFWS）请愿，要求将该物种列为美国本土濒危物种。虽然对于导致这些趋势的机制尚无共识，但加利福尼亚海流大型海洋生态系统中的种群数量下降表明与气候相关的因素，特别是海面温度对海鹦猎物的间接影响。在此，我们使用三种物种分布模型（SDM）来评估在政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的两种未来排放情景下，到2050年适合簇羽海鹦筑巢的栖息地预计变化情况。综合模型结果表明，在照常排放（RCP 8.5）和适度排放（RCP 4.5）两种碳排放情景下，海洋和陆地温度升高在加利福尼亚海流中适合簇羽海鹦筑巢条件的丧失中起关键作用，特别是平均夏季海面温度高于15°C可能会使栖息地不适于繁殖。在两种排放情景下，综合模型结果表明，加利福尼亚海流中目前超过92%的适合筑巢栖息地可能会变得不适合。此外，模型表明，无论采取减排策略如何，在簇羽海鹦整个北美分布范围内，适合筑巢地点的净损失将超过21%。这些模型结果突出了簇羽海鹦数量的持续下降，特别是在南部繁殖群体中，并表明在加利福尼亚海流大型海洋生态系统中近期灭绝的风险很大。
