Department of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science, National University of Singapore, 14 Science Drive 4, Singapore, 117543, Singapore.
Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK.
Ecol Lett. 2018 Jun;21(6):804-813. doi: 10.1111/ele.12943. Epub 2018 Mar 30.
To estimate species loss from habitat destruction, ecologists typically use species-area relationships, but this approach neglects the spatial pattern of habitat fragmentation. Here, we provide new, easily applied, analytical methods that place upper and lower bounds on immediate species loss at any spatial scale and for any spatial pattern of habitat loss. Our formulas are expressed in terms of what we name the 'Preston function', which describes triphasic species-area relationships for contiguous regions. We apply our method to case studies of deforestation and tropical tree species loss at three different scales: a 50 ha forest plot in Panama, the tropical city-state of Singapore and the Brazilian Amazon. Our results show that immediate species loss is somewhat insensitive to fragmentation pattern at small scales but highly sensitive at larger scales: predicted species loss in the Amazon varies by a factor of 16 across different spatial structures of habitat loss.
为了估计因栖息地破坏而导致的物种丧失，生态学家通常会使用物种-面积关系，但这种方法忽略了栖息地破碎化的空间模式。在这里，我们提供了新的、易于应用的分析方法，可以在任何空间尺度和任何空间模式的栖息地丧失下，确定物种的直接损失上限和下限。我们的公式是用我们命名的“普雷斯顿函数”来表示的，它描述了连续区域的三相物种-面积关系。我们将我们的方法应用于三个不同尺度的森林砍伐和热带树种丧失的案例研究：巴拿马的一个 50 公顷的森林样地、热带城邦新加坡和巴西亚马逊。我们的结果表明，小尺度上的物种丧失对破碎化模式的敏感度较低，但大尺度上的敏感度较高：亚马逊地区的预测物种丧失在不同的栖息地丧失空间结构下相差 16 倍。
