Agha Leila, Molitor David
Dartmouth College and NBER.
University of Illinois and NBER.
Rev Econ Stat. 2018 Mar;100(1):29-44. doi: 10.1162/REST_a_00670. Epub 2018 Mar 2.
Local opinion leaders may play a key role in easing information frictions associated with technology adoption. This paper analyzes the influence of physician investigators who lead clinical trials for new cancer drugs. By comparing diffusion patterns across 21 new cancer drugs, we separate correlated regional demand for new technology from information spillovers. Patients in the lead investigator's region are initially 36% more likely to receive the new drug, but utilization converges within four years. We also find that superstar physician authors, measured by trial role or citation history, have broader influence than less prominent authors.
当地意见领袖可能在缓解与技术采用相关的信息摩擦方面发挥关键作用。本文分析了领导新癌症药物临床试验的医师研究者的影响。通过比较21种新癌症药物的扩散模式，我们将新技术的相关区域需求与信息溢出区分开来。主要研究者所在地区的患者最初接受新药的可能性要高出36%，但四年内使用率趋于一致。我们还发现，以试验角色或引用记录衡量的超级明星医师作者比不太知名的作者具有更广泛的影响力。
