Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom;
Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Jun 26;115(26):6804-6809. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1800442115. Epub 2018 Jun 11.
Environmental changes threaten agricultural production, food security, and health. Previous reviews suggest that environmental changes will substantially affect future yields of starchy dietary staples. To date, no comprehensive global analysis of the impacts of environmental change on (nonstaple) vegetables and legumes-important constituents of healthy diets-has been reported. We systematically searched for articles published between 1975 and 2016 on the effects of ambient temperature, tropospheric carbon dioxide (CO), and ozone (O) concentrations, water availability, and salinization on yields and nutritional quality of vegetables and legumes. We estimated mean effects of standardized environmental changes using observed exposure-response relationships and conducted meta-analyses where possible. We identified 174 relevant papers reporting 1,540 experiments. The mean (95% CI) reported yield changes for all vegetables and legumes combined were +22.0% (+11.6% to +32.5%) for a 250-ppm increase in CO concentration, -8.9% (-15.6% to -2.2%) for a 25% increase in O concentration,-34.7% (-44.6% to -24.9%) for a 50% reduction in water availability, and -2.3% (-3.7% to -0.9%) for a 25% increase in salinity. In papers with baseline temperatures >20 °C, a 4 °C increase in temperature reduced mean yields by -31.5% (-41.4% to -21.5%). Impacts of environmental changes on nutritional quality were mixed. In a business-as-usual scenario, predicted changes in environmental exposures would lead to reductions in yields of nonstaple vegetables and legumes. Where adaptation possibilities are limited, this may substantially change their global availability, affordability, and consumption in the mid to long term. Our results stress the importance of prioritizing agricultural developments, to minimize potential reductions in vegetable and legume yields and associated negative health effects.
环境变化威胁着农业生产、粮食安全和健康。先前的综述表明，环境变化将极大地影响未来淀粉类主食的产量。迄今为止，尚未有关于环境变化对（非主食）蔬菜和豆类（健康饮食的重要组成部分）影响的全球综合分析报告。我们系统地搜索了 1975 年至 2016 年间发表的关于环境温度、对流层二氧化碳（CO）和臭氧（O）浓度、水可用性和盐度对蔬菜和豆类产量和营养质量影响的文章。我们使用观察到的暴露-反应关系来估计标准化环境变化的平均影响，并在可能的情况下进行荟萃分析。我们确定了 174 篇相关论文，报告了 1540 项实验。综合所有蔬菜和豆类的平均（95%CI）报告产量变化，CO 浓度增加 250ppm 时产量增加 22.0%（11.6%至 32.5%），O 浓度增加 25%时产量减少 8.9%（15.6%至 2.2%），水可用性减少 50%时产量减少 34.7%（44.6%至 24.9%），盐度增加 25%时产量减少 2.3%（3.7%至 0.9%）。在基线温度大于 20°C 的论文中，温度升高 4°C 会使平均产量减少 31.5%（41.4%至 21.5%）。环境变化对营养质量的影响是混杂的。在照常营业的情况下，预测的环境暴露变化将导致非主食蔬菜和豆类产量的减少。在适应可能性有限的情况下，这可能会在中长期内大大改变它们的全球供应、可负担性和消费。我们的研究结果强调了优先考虑农业发展的重要性，以尽量减少蔬菜和豆类产量潜在减少及其对健康的负面影响。
