Bureau of Environmental Surveillance and Policy, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (NYC DOHMH), New York, New York, USA
Vital Strategies, New York, New York, USA
Environ Health Perspect. 2018 Jun 11;126(6):067003. doi: 10.1289/EHP2154. eCollection 2018 Jun.
Previous studies investigated potential health effects of large-scale power outages, including the massive power failure that affected the northeastern United States and Ontario, Canada, in August 2003, and outages associated with major storms. However, information on localized outages is limited.
The study sought to examine potential health impacts of citywide and localized outages in New York City (NYC).
Along with the citywide 2003 outage, localized outages in July 1999 and July 2006 were identified. We additionally investigated localized, warm- and cold-weather outages that occurred in any of 66 NYC electric-grid networks during 2002–2014 using New York State Public Service Commission data. Mortality and hospitalizations were geocoded and linked to the networks. Associations were estimated using Poisson time-series regression, including examining distributed lags and adjusting for temperature and temporal trends. Network-specific estimates were pooled by season.
Respiratory disease hospitalizations were associated with the 2006 localized outage [cumulative relative risk [CRR] over 0–1 lag day, lag=2.26 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08, 4.74)] and the 2003 citywide outage, but not with other localized, warm-weather outages. Renal disease hospitalizations were associated with the 2003 citywide outage, and with localized, warm-weather outages, pooled across networks [RR at lag=1.16 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.34)], but not the 2006 localized outage. All-cause mortality was positively associated with the 1999, 2003, and 2006 outages (significant for the 2003 outage only), but not with other localized, warm-weather outages. Localized, cold-weather outages were associated with all-cause mortality [lag CRR=1.06 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.12)] and cardiovascular disease hospitalizations [lag CRR=1.14 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.26)], and fewer respiratory disease hospitalizations [lag CRR=0.77 (95% CI: 0.61, 0.97)].
Localized outages may affect health. This information can inform preparedness efforts and underscores the public health importance of ensuring electric grid resiliency to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2154.
先前的研究调查了大规模停电的潜在健康影响,包括 2003 年 8 月影响美国东北部和安大略省的大规模停电,以及与重大风暴相关的停电。然而,有关局部停电的信息有限。
本研究旨在研究纽约市(NYC)全市和局部停电的潜在健康影响。
除了 2003 年全市停电外,还确定了 1999 年 7 月和 2006 年 7 月的局部停电。我们还使用纽约州公共服务委员会的数据,调查了 2002-2014 年期间纽约市 66 个电网网络中发生的任何局部、温暖和寒冷天气停电。使用地理编码对死亡率和住院率进行了分类,并将其与网络相关联。使用泊松时间序列回归估计关联,包括检查分布式滞后并调整温度和时间趋势。按季节汇总网络特定的估计值。
呼吸道疾病住院与 2006 年局部停电(0-1 滞后天的累积相对风险[CRR],滞后=2.26(95%置信区间[CI]:1.08,4.74))和 2003 年全市停电有关,但与其他局部温暖天气停电无关。肾脏疾病住院与 2003 年全市停电以及网络中所有局部温暖天气停电有关(滞后 RR=1.16(95%CI:1.00,1.34)),但与 2006 年局部停电无关。全因死亡率与 1999 年、2003 年和 2006 年的停电(仅与 2003 年的停电显著相关)呈正相关,但与其他局部温暖天气停电无关。局部寒冷天气停电与全因死亡率(滞后 CRR=1.06(95%CI:1.01,1.12))和心血管疾病住院(滞后 CRR=1.14(95%CI:1.03,1.26))有关,呼吸道疾病住院减少(滞后 CRR=0.77(95%CI:0.61,0.97))。
局部停电可能会影响健康。这些信息可以为准备工作提供信息,并强调确保电网对气候变化具有弹性的公共卫生重要性。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2154.