CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Nature. 2018 Jun;558(7709):233-241. doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0173-4. Epub 2018 Jun 13.
We present two narratives on the future of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, from the perspective of an observer looking back from 2070. In the first scenario, greenhouse gas emissions remained unchecked, the climate continued to warm, and the policy response was ineffective; this had large ramifications in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, with worldwide impacts. In the second scenario, ambitious action was taken to limit greenhouse gas emissions and to establish policies that reduced anthropogenic pressure on the environment, slowing the rate of change in Antarctica. Choices made in the next decade will determine what trajectory is realized.
我们呈现了两个关于南极洲和南大洋未来的叙述，从一个观察者在 2070 年回望的角度出发。在第一个情景中，温室气体排放仍未得到控制，气候持续变暖，政策反应也没有效果；这对南极洲和南大洋产生了重大影响，对全球也产生了影响。在第二个情景中，采取了雄心勃勃的行动来限制温室气体排放，并制定了减少人为环境压力的政策，从而减缓了南极洲变化的速度。未来十年的选择将决定实现的轨迹。
