Gardiner Natasha Blaize, Gilbert Neil, Liggett Daniela, Bode Michael
Gateway Antarctica, Centre for Antarctic Studies and Research, School of Earth & Environment, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.
Antarctica New Zealand, Christchurch, New Zealand.
Conserv Biol. 2025 Feb;39(1):e14349. doi: 10.1111/cobi.14349. Epub 2024 Aug 20.
Agreements reached at the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings (ATCMs) are among the primary means for addressing Antarctic conservation and environmental protection issues. However, according to contemporary scholars, Antarctic Treaty decision-making is becoming increasingly unresponsive to the rising environmental challenges in the region. We assessed the performance of Antarctic Treaty decision-making by measuring the rate and diversity of decision-making over the last 6 decades. To measure the rate, we counted the number of inputs and outputs of ATCMs and calculated the time taken for legally binding outputs to enter into force. To measure diversity, we calculated the range of topics addressed by the inputs and outputs of ATCMs. The average number of agreements reached per ATCM increased from 1961 to 2022. Although the diversity of Antarctic topics discussed at ATCMs remained consistently high, the diversity of topics on which legally binding agreements were adopted declined significantly. Antarctic issues-including those of highest priority-are now almost entirely dealt with through nonbinding, soft-law agreements. It is plausible that this move away from binding decisions reflects a dynamic governance institution evolving to respond to new pressures. However, we suggest that the change reveals a concerning shift in decision-making behavior and performance, unique to the treaty's history. Soft law is beneficial in some cases, but its overuse diminishes accountability and transparency, significantly reducing the parties' abilities to understand and measure their performance, including the outcomes and impacts of decisions. Although the rate and diversity of ATCM inputs and outputs provide only a partial view of decision-making performance, the exploration of these metrics provides a foundation for asking essential questions about the impacts of Antarctic Treaty governance on the region's environmental protection and conservation.
南极条约协商会议（ATCMs）达成的协议是解决南极保护和环境保护问题的主要手段之一。然而，当代学者认为，南极条约的决策对该地区日益严峻的环境挑战越来越缺乏响应。我们通过衡量过去60年决策的速度和多样性来评估南极条约决策的表现。为了衡量速度，我们统计了南极条约协商会议的投入和产出数量，并计算具有法律约束力的产出生效所需的时间。为了衡量多样性，我们计算了南极条约协商会议的投入和产出所涉及的主题范围。从1961年到2022年，每次南极条约协商会议达成的协议平均数量有所增加。尽管南极条约协商会议讨论的南极主题的多样性一直保持在较高水平，但通过具有法律约束力的协议所涉及的主题多样性却大幅下降。南极问题，包括那些最优先的问题，现在几乎完全通过不具约束力的软法协议来处理。这种从具有约束力的决策转向软法协议的做法，有可能反映了一个动态治理机构为应对新压力而不断演变。然而，我们认为这种变化揭示了决策行为和表现方面令人担忧的转变，这在该条约的历史上是独一无二的。软法在某些情况下是有益的，但过度使用会削弱问责制和透明度，显著降低各方理解和衡量其表现的能力，包括决策的结果和影响。尽管南极条约协商会议的投入和产出的速度和多样性仅提供了决策表现的部分视角，但对这些指标的探索为探讨南极条约治理对该地区环境保护和养护的影响提出关键问题奠定了基础。
