Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK.
Risk Anal. 2018 Nov;38(11):2245-2257. doi: 10.1111/risa.13128. Epub 2018 Jun 15.
In recent years, there has been a gradual increase in research literature on the challenges of interconnected, compound, interacting, and cascading risks. These concepts are becoming ever more central to the resilience debate. They aggregate elements of climate change adaptation, critical infrastructure protection, and societal resilience in the face of complex, high-impact events. However, despite the potential of these concepts to link together diverse disciplines, scholars and practitioners need to avoid treating them in a superficial or ambiguous manner. Overlapping uses and definitions could generate confusion and lead to the duplication of research effort. This article gives an overview of the state of the art regarding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks. It is intended to help build a coherent basis for the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). The main objective is to propose a holistic framework that highlights the complementarities of the four kinds of complex risk in a manner that is designed to support the work of researchers and policymakers. This article suggests how compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks could be used, with little or no redundancy, as inputs to new analyses and decisional tools designed to support the implementation of the SFDRR. The findings can be used to improve policy recommendations and support tools for emergency and crisis management, such as scenario building and impact trees, thus contributing to the achievement of a system-wide approach to resilience.
近年来，关于相互关联、复合、交互和级联风险挑战的研究文献逐渐增多。这些概念在韧性辩论中变得越来越重要。它们综合了气候变化适应、关键基础设施保护和社会面对复杂高影响事件的韧性等方面的要素。然而，尽管这些概念有可能将不同学科联系起来，但学者和实践者需要避免以肤浅或模糊的方式对待它们。重叠的用法和定义可能会造成混淆，并导致研究工作的重复。本文概述了复合、相互关联、交互和级联风险的最新研究进展。其目的是帮助为实施《仙台减少灾害风险框架》（SFDRR）奠定一个连贯的基础。主要目标是提出一个整体框架，以一种旨在支持研究人员和政策制定者工作的方式突出四种复杂风险的互补性。本文提出了如何以最小的冗余或无冗余的方式使用复合、相互关联、交互和级联风险作为新的分析和决策工具的输入，以支持 SFDRR 的实施。这些发现可用于改进政策建议和应急与危机管理的支持工具，如情景构建和影响树，从而有助于实现韧性的系统方法。
