Granell Clara, Mucha Peter J
Departament de Física de la Matèria Condensada, Universitat de Barcelona, Martí i Franquès 1, E-08028 Barcelona, Spain.
Universitat de Barcelona Institute of Complex Systems (UBICS), Universitat de Barcelona, E-08007 Barcelona, Spain.
Phys Rev E. 2018 May;97(5-1):052302. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.97.052302.
The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of its time in localized environments and has easily identifiable mobility patterns-such as workplaces, university campuses, or schools-it is of critical importance to identify the factors controlling the rate of disease spread. Here, we present a discrete-time, metapopulation-based model to describe the transmission of susceptible-infected-susceptible-like diseases that take place in confined scenarios where the mobilities of the individuals are not random but, rather, follow clear recurrent travel patterns. This model allows analytical determination of the onset of epidemics, as well as the ability to discern which contact structures are most suited to prevent the infection to spread. It thereby determines whether common prevention mechanisms, as isolation, are worth implementing in such a scenario and their expected impact.
流行病的传播很大程度上取决于接触网络的结构，而这可能会受到个体自身流动动态的影响。在封闭场景中，一小群封闭人群大部分时间都在局部环境中，并且具有易于识别的流动模式，如工作场所、大学校园或学校，识别控制疾病传播速度的因素至关重要。在此，我们提出一种基于离散时间、集合种群的模型，以描述在封闭场景中发生的易感-感染-易感类疾病的传播，在这些场景中，个体的流动并非随机，而是遵循明确的周期性出行模式。该模型能够通过分析确定流行病的爆发，以及辨别哪些接触结构最适合防止感染传播。由此，它可以确定在这种场景下，诸如隔离等常见预防机制是否值得实施及其预期影响。
