1 School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University , Tempe, Arizona.
2 Beyond Center for Fundamental Concepts in Science, Arizona State University , Tempe, Arizona.
Astrobiology. 2018 Jun;18(6):779-824. doi: 10.1089/ast.2017.1738.
We introduce a Bayesian method for guiding future directions for detection of life on exoplanets. We describe empirical and theoretical work necessary to place constraints on the relevant likelihoods, including those emerging from better understanding stellar environment, planetary climate and geophysics, geochemical cycling, the universalities of physics and chemistry, the contingencies of evolutionary history, the properties of life as an emergent complex system, and the mechanisms driving the emergence of life. We provide examples for how the Bayesian formalism could guide future search strategies, including determining observations to prioritize or deciding between targeted searches or larger lower resolution surveys to generate ensemble statistics and address how a Bayesian methodology could constrain the prior probability of life with or without a positive detection. Key Words: Exoplanets-Biosignatures-Life detection-Bayesian analysis. Astrobiology 18, 779-824.
我们介绍了一种贝叶斯方法，用于指导未来在系外行星上探测生命的方向。我们描述了必要的经验和理论工作，以限制相关似然率，包括更好地理解恒星环境、行星气候和地球物理学、地球化学循环、物理和化学的普遍性、进化历史的偶然性、生命作为涌现复杂系统的特性以及驱动生命出现的机制。我们提供了贝叶斯形式主义如何指导未来搜索策略的示例，包括确定要优先考虑的观测，或者在目标搜索或更大的低分辨率调查之间做出决定，以生成集合统计数据，并解决贝叶斯方法如何在有或没有阳性检测的情况下限制生命的先验概率。关键词：系外行星-生物特征-生命探测-贝叶斯分析。天体生物学 18，779-824。
