Scientific Computing Program/Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Scientific Computing Program/Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Epidemics. 2018 Dec;25:101-111. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.011. Epub 2018 May 31.
The effective reproduction number, R, is a measure of transmission that can be calculated from standard incidence data to timely detect the beginning of epidemics. It has being increasingly used for surveillance of directly transmitted diseases. However, current methods for R estimation do not apply for vector borne diseases, whose transmission cycle depends on temperature. Here we propose a method that provides dengue's R estimates in the presence of temperature-mediated seasonality and apply this method to simulated and real data from two cities in Brazil where dengue is endemic. The method shows good precision in the simulated data. When applied to the real data, it shows differences in the transmission profile of the two cities and identifies periods of higher transmission.
有效繁殖数（R）是一种衡量传播的指标，可以从标准发病数据中计算出来，以及时发现传染病的开始。它已被越来越多地用于直接传播疾病的监测。然而，当前用于 R 估计的方法不适用于媒介传播疾病，因为其传播周期取决于温度。在这里，我们提出了一种方法，在存在温度介导的季节性的情况下提供登革热的 R 估计，并将该方法应用于来自巴西两个登革热流行城市的模拟和真实数据。该方法在模拟数据中显示出良好的精度。当应用于真实数据时，它显示了两个城市的传播特征的差异，并确定了更高传播的时期。
