2012年2型糖尿病确诊患者的超额死亡率——基于7000万德国人的理赔数据估算

Excess mortality for people diagnosed with type 2 diabetes in 2012 - Estimates based on claims data from 70 million Germans.

作者信息

Tönnies T, Hoyer A, Brinks R

机构信息

Institute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Centre (DDZ), Leibniz Centre for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Auf'm Hennekamp 65, 40225, Düsseldorf, Germany; German Centre for Diabetes Research (DZD), Ingolstädter Landstraße 1, 85764, Neuherberg, Germany.

Institute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Centre (DDZ), Leibniz Centre for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Auf'm Hennekamp 65, 40225, Düsseldorf, Germany.

出版信息

Nutr Metab Cardiovasc Dis. 2018 Sep;28(9):887-891. doi: 10.1016/j.numecd.2018.05.008. Epub 2018 May 29.

DOI:10.1016/j.numecd.2018.05.008

PMID:29960839

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The hazard ratio (HR) is a meaningful concept for comparing the mortality of people with and without type 2 diabetes (T2D). Nevertheless, there is only one German study estimating age-specific HRs. Thus, this study aimed to provide population-wide age-specific HRs for Germany using a novel method based on aggregated population data.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used an illness-death model and published data on T2D prevalence and incidence as well as mortality in the German general population to estimate age-specific HRs in the year 2012 for the population aged 65-90 years. For men, the overall HR was 2.3, which decreased from 2.8 between 65 and 69 years old to 1.6 between 85 and 90 years old. For women, the overall HR was 3.0, which decreased from 4.2 to 1.7 in the same age groups, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In Germany, men and women in 2012 with T2D aged 65-90 years experienced a three-to four-fold higher mortality compared to people without T2D, which might indicate that the excess mortality could be higher than in countries with comparable health care systems. Female sex and younger age were associated with higher excess mortality.

摘要