Department of Psychology, University of California, Davis.
Perspect Psychol Sci. 2018 Jul;13(4):411-417. doi: 10.1177/1745691617751884.
The credibility revolution (sometimes referred to as the "replicability crisis") in psychology has brought about many changes in the standards by which psychological science is evaluated. These changes include (a) greater emphasis on transparency and openness, (b) a move toward preregistration of research, (c) more direct-replication studies, and (d) higher standards for the quality and quantity of evidence needed to make strong scientific claims. What are the implications of these changes for productivity, creativity, and progress in psychological science? These questions can and should be studied empirically, and I present my predictions here. The productivity of individual researchers is likely to decline, although some changes (e.g., greater collaboration, data sharing) may mitigate this effect. The effects of these changes on creativity are likely to be mixed: Researchers will be less likely to pursue risky questions; more likely to use a broad range of methods, designs, and populations; and less free to define their own best practices and standards of evidence. Finally, the rate of scientific progress-the most important shared goal of scientists-is likely to increase as a result of these changes, although one's subjective experience of making progress will likely become rarer.
心理学领域的可信度革命(有时也被称为“可重复性危机”)给心理学的评估标准带来了诸多变化。这些变化包括:(a)更加注重透明性和开放性;(b)研究预先注册的推行;(c)更多直接复制研究;(d)对做出有力科学论断所需的证据的质量和数量设定了更高标准。这些变化对心理学科学的生产力、创造力和进展有哪些影响?这些问题可以而且应该通过实证研究来探讨,我在这里提出我的预测。单个研究人员的生产力可能会下降,尽管一些变化(例如,更多的合作、数据共享)可能会减轻这种影响。这些变化对创造力的影响可能是复杂的:研究人员不太可能追求风险问题;更有可能使用广泛的方法、设计和人群;并且不太自由地定义自己的最佳实践和证据标准。最后,科学进步的速度——这是科学家们最重要的共同目标——可能会因这些变化而提高,尽管人们对取得进展的主观体验可能会变得更加罕见。