Austerity Policies and Mortality in Spain After the Financial Crisis of 2008.

OBJECTIVES

To analyze mortality in Spain and the United States before and after these countries implemented divergent policies in response to the financial crisis of 2008.

METHODS

We examined mortality statistics in both countries in the years 2000 to 2015. Spain started austerity policies in 2010. We compared differences in mortality ratios, on the basis of trends and effect size analysis.

RESULTS

During 2000 to 2010, overall mortality rates (r = 0.98; P < .001; Cohen's d = -0.228) decreased in both countries. In 2011, this trend changed abruptly in Spain, where observed mortality surpassed expected mortality by 29% in 2011 and by 41% in 2015. By contrast, observed mortality surpassed expected mortality in the United States by only 8% in 2015. As the mortality statistics diverged, the effect size greatly increased (d = 7.531). During this 5-year period, there were 505 559 more deaths in Spain than the expected number, while in the United States the difference was 431 501 more deaths despite the 7-fold larger population in the United States compared with Spain.

CONCLUSIONS

The marked excess mortality in 2011 to 2015 in Spain is attributable to austerity policies.