Department of Population and Development, Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO), Mexico City, Mexico.
Institute of Geography, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico.
Public Health. 2018 Oct;163:1-8. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2018.06.001. Epub 2018 Jul 11.
Colombia is considered one of the most violent countries in the world even though homicide mortality has decreased since 2002. Mexico's homicide rate has tripled since 2008, after a period of decreasing mortality; this fact has been compared with Colombia in the 1990s and defined as a 'Colombianization' of violence in Mexico. We analyzed and compared the trend and impact of homicide mortality in Colombia and Mexico between 1998 and 2015.
Cross-sectional descriptive study.
We calculated the standardized mortality rates and the years of life lost using data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography in Mexico and the National Management Department of Statistics in Colombia. We used the joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in the mortality trend.
During the 1990s, Colombia reached the highest homicide mortality rates in the world, but these rates have since decreased significantly. In Mexico, homicide mortality had a decreasing trend from 1998 to 2007; however, since 2008, the rate grew significantly, and although mortality tended to decrease after reaching its peak in 2011, a slight upturn was observed in 2015.
We found that the trend in mortality in both countries has had certain similarities, such as the increase in mortality after the implementation of antidrug policies and the subsequent decrease; however, the political processes, the level of mortality reached, its impact on life expectancy, and its distribution by gender are dissimilar. We consider speaking of a 'Colombianization' of violence in Mexico to be inaccurate.
尽管哥伦比亚自 2002 年以来，其凶杀死亡率有所下降，但仍被认为是世界上最暴力的国家之一。墨西哥的凶杀率自 2008 年以来翻了三倍，此前其死亡率曾呈下降趋势；这一事实与 20 世纪 90 年代的哥伦比亚进行了比较，并被定义为墨西哥暴力的“哥伦比亚化”。我们分析和比较了哥伦比亚和墨西哥在 1998 年至 2015 年间凶杀死亡率的趋势和影响。
横断描述性研究。
我们使用来自墨西哥国家统计和地理研究所和哥伦比亚国家统计管理部的数据，计算了标准化死亡率和生命损失年数。我们使用连接点回归分析来确定死亡率趋势的显著变化。
在 20 世纪 90 年代，哥伦比亚达到了世界上最高的凶杀死亡率，但此后这一比率显著下降。在墨西哥，1998 年至 2007 年期间，凶杀死亡率呈下降趋势；然而，自 2008 年以来，这一比率显著上升，尽管在 2011 年达到峰值后死亡率呈下降趋势，但在 2015 年出现了轻微的回升。
我们发现，这两个国家的死亡率趋势有一定的相似之处，例如在实施禁毒政策后死亡率的增加以及随后的下降；然而，政治进程、死亡率达到的水平、对预期寿命的影响及其性别分布是不同的。我们认为，将墨西哥的暴力“哥伦比亚化”的说法是不准确的。
