Utility of HAPS for predicting prognosis in acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common abdominal disorder, which requires early diagnosis and treatment. Several prognostic scoring systems introduced to clinical practice are not suitable in emergency department (ED) because these require much time and complex parameters. Recently, the harmless acute pancreatitis score (HAPS) has been introduced to identify AP with a nonsevere course. The aim of this study was to determine the utility of HAPS in predicting the severity of AP.

METHODS

All patients aged >16 years who were diagnosed as AP in ED were enrolled in this retrospective study. The study included 144 patients with a mean age of 58.7±15.4 years, and 69 (47.9%) of them were males and 75 (52.1%) were females. Patient data were collected from hospital database. The utility of HAPS was analyzed and compared using the Ranson's score.

RESULTS

HAPS was statistically significant for predicting mild disease (p=0.008) and has demonstrated a specificity of 81%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 96%, and an odds ratio of 5.57 (1.51-20.50). The predictability of Ranson's scores was not significant. The measure of agreement (κ) between the two scores was 0.15, indicating a low agreement.

CONCLUSION

HAPS is a simple and useful scoring algorithm to predict the non-severe course of AP in ED. HAPS-0 patients did not require early aggressive treatments and advanced radiological screening tools during the early stages of the disease.