Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China; Key Laboratory of Molecular Cardiovascular Sciences of Ministry of Education, Peking University Institute of Environmental Medicine, Beijing, China.
Guangdong Polytechnic of Environmental Protection Engineering, Foshan, Guangdong Province, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Dec 15;645:491-498. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.091. Epub 2018 Jul 18.
Numerous studies have reported associations between ambient particulate matter (PM) and daily mortality; however, little is known about temporal variations in ambient air pollution associated mortality risks, particularly in developing countries with limited long time-series air monitoring data. In present study, we assessed the associations and temporal relationships between ambient PM and daily mortality in Guangzhou, China, during 2006-2016. With this unique 11-year dataset, we related daily concentrations of PM with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm (PM), between 2.5 and 10 μm (PM) and <10 μm (PM) to daily mortality in Guangzhou. We applied overdispersed Poisson regression with adjustment for time trend and potential confounding factors. Multiple level sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of main results. Between 2006 and 2016, annual concentrations of PM decreased by 50.8% to 27.0 μg/m, of PM by 27.6% to 16.2 μg/m, and of PM by 44.1% to 43.3 μg/m in Guangzhou. In this study, per 10 μg/m increases in mean concentrations at current day and 6 prior days of death (lag06), we observed increases in total mortality risks of 0.55% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.24%, 0.86%) for PM, 0.99% (95%CI: 0.48%, 1.50%) for PM, and 0.44% (95%CI: 0.22%, 0.65%) for PM. Stronger associations were observed for ambient PM on cardio-respiratory mortality and people at age ≥ 65 years. Despite drastic reductions in annual PM levels, PM associated cardiovascular and respiratory mortality risks remained significant at 1.26% (95%CI: 0.19%, 2.35%) and 1.91% (95%CI: 0.25%, 3.60%) during 2014-2016. Further, PM and PM associated respiratory mortality risks showed increasing trend over time (p-value = 0.03 for PM). In summary, though ambient PM levels decreased substantially in Guangzhou in recent years, PM and PM associated cardio-respiratory mortality risks remained significant and respiratory mortality risks even increased. Our findings provide strong rationale for continuation of ambient air pollution control effort for public health protection in the future.
许多研究报告了环境颗粒物（PM）与每日死亡率之间的关联；然而，对于与空气污染相关的死亡率风险的时间变化知之甚少，特别是在发展中国家，这些国家的长期空气质量监测数据有限。在本研究中，我们评估了 2006-2016 年期间中国广州的环境 PM 与每日死亡率之间的关联和时间关系。利用这一独特的 11 年数据集，我们将直径小于 2.5μm 的 PM（PM）、直径在 2.5-10μm 之间的 PM（PM）和直径小于 10μm 的 PM（PM）与广州的每日死亡率联系起来。我们应用过度分散泊松回归，同时调整时间趋势和潜在混杂因素。进行了多次水平敏感性分析，以检验主要结果的稳健性。2006 年至 2016 年间，广州 PM 的年浓度下降了 50.8%，降至 27.0μg/m；PM 下降了 27.6%，降至 16.2μg/m；PM 下降了 44.1%，降至 43.3μg/m。在这项研究中，我们观察到，与当前日和死亡前 6 日（lag06）的平均浓度每增加 10μg/m，总死亡率风险分别增加 0.55%（95%置信区间（CI）：0.24%，0.86%），PM 增加 0.99%（95%CI：0.48%，1.50%），PM 增加 0.44%（95%CI：0.22%，0.65%）。在心肺死亡率和年龄≥65 岁的人群中，观察到的环境 PM 关联更强。尽管每年的 PM 水平大幅下降，但在 2014-2016 年期间，PM 与心血管和呼吸相关的死亡率风险仍然显著，分别为 1.26%（95%CI：0.19%，2.35%）和 1.91%（95%CI：0.25%，3.60%）。此外，PM 和 PM 与呼吸相关的死亡率风险呈上升趋势（PM 值为 0.03）。总之，尽管近年来广州的环境 PM 水平大幅下降，但 PM 和 PM 与心肺相关的死亡率风险仍然显著，呼吸相关的死亡率风险甚至有所上升。我们的研究结果为未来保护公众健康而继续进行空气污染控制提供了强有力的依据。
