Department of Tourism Management, Jin Zhong University, Jinzhong 033619, China.
College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Dec 29;19(1):344. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19010344.
PM pollution in China is becoming increasingly severe, threatening public health. The major goal of this study is to evaluate the mortality rate attributed to PM pollution and design pollution mitigation schemes in a southern district of China through a two-objective optimization model. The mortality rate is estimated by health effect evaluation model. Subjected to limited data information, it is assumed that the meta-analysis method, through summarizing and combining the research results on the same subject, was suitable to estimate the percentage of deaths caused by PM pollution. The critical parameters, such as the total number of deaths and the background concentration of PM, were obtained through on-site survey, data collection, literature search, policy analysis, and expert consultation. The equations for estimating the number of deaths caused by PM pollution were established by incorporating the relationship coefficient of exposure to reaction, calculated residual PM concentration of affected region, and statistical total base number of deaths into a general framework. To balance the cost from air quality improvement and human health risks, a two-objective optimization model was developed. The first objective is to minimize the mortality rate attributable to PM pollution, and the second objective is to minimize the total system cost over three periods. The optimization results demonstrated that the combination of weights assigned to the two objectives significantly influenced the model output. For example, a high weight value assigned to minimizing the number of deaths results in the increased use of treatment techniques with higher efficiencies and a dramatic decrease in pollutant concentrations. In contrast, a model weighted more toward minimizing economic loss may lead to an increase in the death toll due to exposure to higher air pollution levels. The effective application of this model in the Nanshan District of Shenzhen City, China, is expected to serve as a basis for similar work in other parts of the world in the future.
中国的 PM 污染日益严重,威胁着公众健康。本研究的主要目标是通过建立一个两目标优化模型来评估中国南方某区因 PM 污染导致的死亡率,并设计污染缓解方案。死亡率通过健康影响评价模型进行估算。由于数据信息有限,假设采用荟萃分析方法,通过总结和组合同一主题的研究结果,适合估算 PM 污染导致的死亡率比例。通过现场调查、数据收集、文献检索、政策分析和专家咨询,获得了总死亡人数和 PM 背景浓度等关键参数。通过将暴露反应关系系数、受影响区域的计算残留 PM 浓度和统计总基础死亡人数纳入一般框架,建立了估算由 PM 污染导致的死亡人数的方程。为了平衡空气质量改善和人类健康风险的成本,开发了一个两目标优化模型。第一个目标是最小化由 PM 污染导致的死亡率,第二个目标是最小化三个时期的总系统成本。优化结果表明,两个目标权重的组合显著影响模型输出。例如,分配给最小化死亡人数的权重较高,会导致采用效率更高的处理技术,并使污染物浓度大幅降低。相反,更倾向于最小化经济损失的模型可能会导致因暴露于更高水平的空气污染而导致的死亡人数增加。本模型在中国深圳市南山区的有效应用,有望为未来世界其他地区开展类似工作提供依据。