College of Nursing, Eulji University, Daejeon 34824, Korea.
Department of Preventive Medicine, Eulji University School of Medicine, Daejeon 34824, Korea.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018 Jul 25;15(8):1580. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15081580.
Although the effects of age, period, and cohort (APC) on suicide are important, previous work in this area may have been invalid because of an identification problem. We analyzed these effects under three different scenarios to identify vulnerable groups and thus overcame the identification problem. We extracted the annual numbers of suicides from the National Death Register of Korea (1992⁻2015) and estimated the APC effects. The annual average suicide rates in 1992⁻2015 were 31.5 and 14.7 per 100,000 males and females, respectively. The APC effects on suicide were similar in both sexes. The age effect was clearly higher in older subjects, in contrast to the minimal changes apparent during earlier adulthood. The birth cohort effect showed an inverted U shape; a higher cohort effect was evident in females born in the early 1980s when period drift was larger than 3.7%/year. Period effect increased sharply during the early 1990s and 2000s. We found that elderly and young females may be at a particularly high risk of suicide in Korea.
尽管年龄、时期和队列（APC）对自杀的影响很重要，但该领域之前的工作可能由于识别问题而无效。我们在三种不同情况下分析了这些影响，以确定弱势群体，从而克服了识别问题。我们从韩国国家死亡登记处（1992-2015 年）中提取了每年的自杀人数，并估计了 APC 的影响。1992-2015 年，男性和女性的年平均自杀率分别为 31.5 和 14.7 人/10 万人。APC 对自杀的影响在两性中相似。与成年早期明显的微小变化相比，年龄效应在年龄较大的人群中更为明显。出生队列效应呈倒 U 形；当时期漂移大于 3.7%/年时，80 年代初出生的女性的队列效应更高。时期效应在 90 年代初和 2000 年代急剧增加。我们发现，韩国的老年和年轻女性可能面临特别高的自杀风险。
