School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.
Soc Sci Med. 2013 Sep;93:163-5. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2013.04.029. Epub 2013 May 4.
This commentary discusses the age-period-cohort identification problem. It shows that, despite a plethora of proposed solutions in the literature, no model is able to solve the identification problem because the identification problem is inherent to the real-world processes being modelled. As such, we cast doubt on the conclusions of a number of papers, including one presented here (Page, Milner, Morrell, & Taylor, 2013). We conclude with some recommendations for those wanting to model age, period and cohort in a compelling way.
这篇评论讨论了年龄-时期-队列识别问题。它表明，尽管文献中提出了大量的解决方案，但没有一个模型能够解决识别问题，因为识别问题是在所建模的实际过程中固有的。因此，我们对一些论文的结论提出了质疑，包括本文（Page、Milner、Morrell 和 Taylor，2013）提出的一篇。最后，我们为那些希望以引人入胜的方式对年龄、时期和队列进行建模的人提出了一些建议。
