Post-hospital mortality in children aged 2-12 years in Tanzania: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rates of child mortality worldwide. Little is known about post-hospital outcomes after an index hospitalization for older children. We determined 12-month post-hospital mortality rate and identified factors associated with higher mortality.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, we enrolled children 2-12 years of age admitted to the pediatric wards of two public hospitals in northwestern Tanzania. Participants or proxies were contacted at 3, 6 and 12 months post-hospitalization. The primary outcome measured was mortality. Factors associated with mortality were determined using Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 506 participants were enrolled. In-hospital mortality rate was 7.7% (39/506). Of the 467 participants discharged, the post-hospital mortality rate was 10.1% (47/467). Sickle cell disease (Hazard Ratio (HR) 3.32, 95% CI 1.44-7.68), severe malnutrition (HR 3.19, 95% CI 1.18-8.57), neurologic diseases (HR 3.51, 95% CI 1.35-9.11), heart disease (HR 7.11, 95% CI, 2.89-17.51), cancer (HR 11.79, 95% CI 4.95-28.03), and septic shock (HR 4.64, 95% CI 1.42-15.08) had higher association with mortality compared to other diagnoses. The risk factors significantly associated with mortality included older age (HR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.08), lower hemoglobin level (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.76-0.90), lower Glasgow Coma Scale (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.59-0.74), history of decreased urine output (HR 2.87, 95% CI 1.49-5.53), higher respiratory rate (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.03), estimated glomerular filtration rate less than 60 ml/min/1.73m2 (binary) (HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.10-3.10), and lower oxygen saturation (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.92-0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

Post-hospital mortality is disturbingly high among children 2-12 years of age in Tanzania. Post-hospital interventions are urgently needed especially for older children with chronic illnesses.