Pacific Institute, Oakland, CA 94612
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Sep 4;115(36):8863-8871. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1808893115. Epub 2018 Aug 20.
Fundamental transitions in natural resources technologies, institutions, and management approaches are often difficult to see in advance, or even in the midst, of actual changes. Such a transformation now appears to be underway for freshwater resources, driven by increasingly severe water-related crises around the world. These include mismatches between supply and demand; the continued failure to meet basic human needs for water and sanitation; expanding ecological degradation due to extraction of water from natural systems and human-caused climate changes; the development of new technologies for using, treating, monitoring, and reporting on water use; new conceptual work; and growing attention given to water issues by the public and scientific communities. Similar transitions, with additional implications for water, also appear to be underway in the energy and climate fields. For such transitions to be successful, it is important to understand what drives deep changes in the perceptions, management, and use of natural resources; the factors that encourage or discourage changes; and whether strategies can be developed to improve and accelerate those changes that lead to social, economic, and environmental sustainability goals. This paper addresses the concept of resource or environmental transitions in the context of freshwater; reviews theories, data, and frameworks for identifying and analyzing transitions; offers some examples; and identifies key policies to help manage effective and successful transitions.
自然资源技术、制度和管理方法的根本转变通常难以提前预见,甚至在实际变化中也难以预见。由于世界各地日益严重的与水有关的危机,这种转变现在似乎正在淡水资源领域发生。这些危机包括:供应和需求之间不匹配;未能继续满足人类基本的水和卫生需求;由于从自然系统中抽取水和人为气候变化而导致生态退化不断扩大;用于水的使用、处理、监测和报告的新技术的开发;新概念工作;公众和科学界对水问题的日益关注。在能源和气候领域,也似乎正在发生类似的、对水有额外影响的转变。为了使这些转变取得成功,重要的是要了解是什么驱动了对自然资源的看法、管理和利用的深刻变化;是什么因素鼓励或阻碍了这些变化;以及是否可以制定战略来改善和加速那些导致社会、经济和环境可持续性目标的变化。本文在淡水背景下探讨了资源或环境转变的概念;回顾了用于识别和分析转变的理论、数据和框架;提供了一些示例;并确定了有助于管理有效和成功转变的关键政策。