Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, and Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012 May 8;109(19):7156-61. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1115521109. Epub 2012 Apr 16.
All human-environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations.
所有人类与环境系统都适应气候及其自然变化。适应人类引起的气候变化在很大程度上被设想为这些适应的增量，旨在避免系统在当前位置发生中断。然而，在某些地方，对于某些系统来说，脆弱性和风险可能非常大，以至于需要进行变革性的适应，而不是增量适应。三类变革性适应是指在更大规模上采用的适应、对特定地区或资源系统真正新颖的适应，以及改变地点和转移位置的适应。我们用来自非洲、欧洲和北美的例子来说明这些适应。两种情况为气候变化的变革性适应奠定了基础：某些地区、人口或资源系统的巨大脆弱性；以及严重的气候变化，甚至超过了强大的人类利用系统。然而，由于气候变化风险和适应效益的不确定性、变革性行动的高成本以及倾向于维持现有资源系统和政策的机构和行为行动，预期的变革性适应可能难以实施。实施变革性适应需要努力启动它，然后随着时间的推移维持这种努力。在启动变革性适应时，重点事件和多重压力很重要，同时还需要有当地的领导。在维持变革性适应方面，支持性的社会背景以及可用于行动的可接受选项和资源似乎是关键的促成因素。早期步骤包括将变革性适应纳入风险管理，并启动研究以扩大创新变革性适应的菜单。
