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中国城市的臭氧污染:季节性变化评估、健康影响和经济负担。

Ozone pollution in Chinese cities: Assessment of seasonal variation, health effects and economic burden.

机构信息

Centre for Environmental Science and Engineering (CESE), Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, 400076, India; Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, 600036, India.

School of Environment & Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China.

出版信息

Environ Pollut. 2019 Apr;247:792-801. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2019.01.049. Epub 2019 Jan 29.

Abstract

The ground-level ozone (O) concentration in the urban regions of China has become an increasingly noticeable environmental problem in recent years. Many epidemiological studies have reported the association between O pollution and mortality, only a few studies have focused on the O-related mortality and corresponding economic effects at the Chinese city and province level. This study reports the seasonal variation of ground-level O in 338 cities of China during the year 2016 and evaluates its effect on premature mortality and economic loss. It further illustrates the differences in cause-specific mortality outcomes of the log-linear and linear model, two of the prominently used methods for estimating health effects. In 2016, the annual average daily maximum 8-h O concentration in China ranged between 74 and 201 μg/m (138 ± 24.7 μg/m). 30% of the total population was exposed to >160 μg/m O concentration (Chinese national ambient air quality standard) and about 67.2% urban population lived in exposure above the WHO recommended O concentrations (100 μg/m). The estimated national O-attributable mortality was 74.2 × 10 (95% CI: 16.7×10-127×10) in the log-linear model, whereas, the total O-related mortality using the linear model was 69.6 × 10 (95% CI: 16.2 × 10-115 × 10). The exposure to O caused a nationwide economic loss of about 7.6 billion US$ (range: 1.7-12.9) in 2016. This study uniquely provides most comprehensive coverage of the Chinese cities for O associated mortality utilizing ground level measurement data for 2016 and presents a measurable assessment to the policymakers of China for streamlining their efforts on air quality improvement and O containment.

摘要

近年来,中国城市地区的地面臭氧(O)浓度已成为一个日益引人关注的环境问题。许多流行病学研究报告了 O 污染与死亡率之间的关联,但只有少数研究关注中国城市和省份层面的 O 相关死亡率及其相应的经济影响。本研究报告了 2016 年中国 338 个城市的地面 O 季节性变化,并评估了其对过早死亡和经济损失的影响。它进一步说明了在使用最广泛的两种估算健康影响的方法(对数线性模型和线性模型)中,特定原因死亡率结果的差异。2016 年,中国年平均日最大 8 小时 O 浓度范围在 74 至 201μg/m(138±24.7μg/m)之间。30%的总人口暴露于>160μg/m O 浓度(中国国家环境空气质量标准),约 67.2%的城市人口生活在世界卫生组织推荐的 O 浓度(100μg/m)以上。在对数线性模型中,估计的全国 O 归因死亡率为 74.2×10(95%置信区间:16.7×10-127×10),而在线性模型中,总 O 相关死亡率为 69.6×10(95%置信区间:16.2×10-115×10)。2016 年,由于 O 暴露造成的全国经济损失约为 76 亿美元(范围:17 亿至 129 亿美元)。本研究利用 2016 年地面测量数据,独特地为中国城市地区的 O 相关死亡率提供了最全面的覆盖,并为中国决策者提供了可衡量的评估,以简化他们在改善空气质量和控制 O 方面的努力。

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