Li X D, Qu H Y, Wen X Z, Wen C J, Zhou S Y, Yu H W
Guangdong Province Hospital for Occupational Disease Prevention and Treatment. Guangzhou 510030, China.
Zhonghua Lao Dong Wei Sheng Zhi Ye Bing Za Zhi. 2018 Jul 20;36(7):508-511. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.1001-9391.2018.07.008.
This study was aimed to analyze the epidemic trend and predict the incidence trend of occupational diseases during 2006-2015 in Guangdong province, which may provide the theoretical foundation for occupational disease risk assessment and precise control and prevention. We analyzed the number of reported occupational disease cases, the constituent ratio, the average age and working-age of patients. We also performed the linear-by-linear association test of new incidence, median age and median working-age by curve-fitting method, of which the diagnostic year was set as the independent variable. Meanwhile, we designed an ARIMA model to predict the variation tendency of occupational diseases in 2017-2020. (1) During 2006-2015, the total reported cases of occupational disease is 5289, including 2101 cases of occupational pneumoconiosis (39.7%) , 1363 cases of occupational poisoning (25.8%) , and 864 cases of occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease (16.3%) . (2) The number of occupational diseases and pneumoconiosis have a straight upward trend ((2)=0.851, (2)=0.856) , while the number of occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease and occupational tumor have a exponential trend ((2)=0.914, (2)=0.696) . The constituent ratio of occupational poisoning is decreasing, and the constituent ratio of occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease is increasing. (3) The average onset age is 40 (33, 46) years old, and the average onset working-age is 6 (3, 11) years. Both of them have a straight upward trend ((2)=0.954、(2)=0.792) . The onset age of pneumoconiosis, occupational poisoning and occupational otolaryngological and stomatological disease have a upward trend. In addition, the onset working-age of occupational poisoning and pneumoconiosis have a upward trend. (4) The number of occupational diseases in 2017-2020 is predicted to be between 902-1231. Occupational diseases in Guangdong province showed a trend of high incidence. The age and working-age of occupational diseases showed an extended trend. Therefore, our work of occupational epidemic trend may provide some bases for the occupational disease risk assessment and precise control and prevention.
本研究旨在分析2006 - 2015年广东省职业病的流行趋势并预测其发病趋势，为职业病风险评估及精准防控提供理论依据。我们分析了报告的职业病病例数、构成比、患者平均年龄及工龄。还采用曲线拟合方法对新发病率、中位年龄和中位工龄进行线性 - 线性关联检验，将诊断年份设为自变量。同时，设计了自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）模型来预测2017 - 2020年职业病的变化趋势。（1）2006 - 2015年，报告的职业病总病例数为5289例，其中职业性尘肺病2101例（39.7%），职业中毒1363例（25.8%），职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病864例（16.3%）。（2）职业病和尘肺病病例数呈直线上升趋势（（2）=0.851，（2）=0.856），而职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病和职业肿瘤病例数呈指数趋势（（2）=0.914，（2）=0.696）。职业中毒的构成比在下降，职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病的构成比在上升。（3）平均发病年龄为40（33，46）岁，平均发病工龄为6（3，11）年。两者均呈直线上升趋势（（2）=0.954、（2）=0.792）。尘肺病、职业中毒和职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病的发病年龄呈上升趋势。此外，职业中毒和尘肺病的发病工龄呈上升趋势。（4）预计2017 - 2020年职业病病例数在902 - 1231例之间。广东省职业病呈高发趋势。职业病的发病年龄和工龄呈延长趋势。因此，我们的职业病流行趋势研究可为职业病风险评估及精准防控提供一定依据。
