Li X, Liu K, Gu X, Yuan X J, Shao Z J
Department of Epidemiology, School of Military Preventive Medicine, The Fourth Military Medical University, Xi'an 710032, China.
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical College, Weifang 261021, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2018 Sep 10;39(9):1159-1164. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2018.09.004.
To understand the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Wei River Basin from 2005 to 2015, and analyze the environmental factors that cause the differences of spatial distribution. HFRS reported cases in Wei River Basin from 2005 to 2015 were collected form "National Disease Reporting Information System" , and the epidemiological features of HFRS were analyzed. Boosted regression trees (BRT) model was applied to evaluate the environment factors on the geographical distribution of HFRS in Wei River basin at 5 km×5 km gird scale. The number of HFRS cases was 18 629, and the average annual incidence from 2005-2015 in Wei River basin was 7.24/100 000. The highest morbidity was 15.18/100 000 in 2012. The middle and lower reaches of Wei River basin had high incidence of HFRS, such as Xi'an, Weinan city. Patients' age was mainly between 16 to 60, and the largest morbidity occured in people over 60 years old. Boosted regression trees modle identified building land, farmland coverage percentage and altitude had higher contribution to the distribution of HFRS. The epidemiological characteristics of HFRS changed significantly. Patients older than 60 years old were having the highest incidence rates. Environmental factors such as buildup land, farmland and altitude played important roles in the geographical distribution of HFRS in the Wei River basin.
为了解2005年至2015年渭河流域肾综合征出血热(HFRS)的流行病学特征,并分析导致空间分布差异的环境因素。收集2005年至2015年渭河流域HFRS报告病例,来自“国家疾病报告信息系统”,并分析HFRS的流行病学特征。应用增强回归树(BRT)模型,在5 km×5 km网格尺度上评估渭河流域HFRS地理分布的环境因素。HFRS病例数为18629例,2005 - 2015年渭河流域年平均发病率为7.24/10万。2012年发病率最高,为15.18/10万。渭河流域中下游HFRS发病率较高,如西安市、渭南市。患者年龄主要在16至60岁之间,60岁以上人群发病率最高。增强回归树模型确定建设用地、农田覆盖率和海拔对HFRS分布的贡献较大。HFRS的流行病学特征发生了显著变化。60岁以上患者发病率最高。建设用地、农田和海拔等环境因素在渭河流域HFRS的地理分布中起重要作用。