School of Mathematical Sciences, Soochow University, Suzhou 215006, China.
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Oct 23;115(43):E9994-E10002. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1802987115. Epub 2018 Oct 8.
Future state prediction for nonlinear dynamical systems is a challenging task, particularly when only a few time series samples for high-dimensional variables are available from real-world systems. In this work, we propose a model-free framework, named randomly distributed embedding (RDE), to achieve accurate future state prediction based on short-term high-dimensional data. Specifically, from the observed data of high-dimensional variables, the RDE framework randomly generates a sufficient number of low-dimensional "nondelay embeddings" and maps each of them to a "delay embedding," which is constructed from the data of a to be predicted target variable. Any of these mappings can perform as a low-dimensional weak predictor for future state prediction, and all of such mappings generate a distribution of predicted future states. This distribution actually patches all pieces of association information from various embeddings unbiasedly or biasedly into the whole dynamics of the target variable, which after operated by appropriate estimation strategies, creates a stronger predictor for achieving prediction in a more reliable and robust form. Through applying the RDE framework to data from both representative models and real-world systems, we reveal that a high-dimension feature is no longer an obstacle but a source of information crucial to accurate prediction for short-term data, even under noise deterioration.
未来状态预测对于非线性动力系统来说是一项具有挑战性的任务,特别是在实际系统中只能获得少数高维变量的时间序列样本的情况下。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种无模型框架,名为随机分布嵌入(RDE),以基于短期高维数据实现准确的未来状态预测。具体来说,从高维变量的观测数据中,RDE 框架随机生成足够数量的低维“无延迟嵌入”,并将每个嵌入映射到一个“延迟嵌入”,该嵌入由要预测的目标变量的数据构建。这些映射中的任何一个都可以作为未来状态预测的低维弱预测器,并且所有这些映射都生成一个预测未来状态的分布。该分布实际上将来自各个嵌入的所有关联信息无偏或有偏地补丁到目标变量的整体动态中,经过适当的估计策略操作后,创建了一个更强的预测器,以更可靠和稳健的形式实现预测。通过将 RDE 框架应用于来自代表性模型和实际系统的数据,我们揭示了高维特征不再是障碍,而是准确预测短期数据的关键信息来源,即使在噪声恶化的情况下也是如此。