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气候变化应对策略对牲畜生产力和家庭福利的影响:来自巴基斯坦的实证证据。

Impact of climate-change risk-coping strategies on livestock productivity and household welfare: empirical evidence from Pakistan.

作者信息

Rahut Dil Bahadur, Ali Akhter

机构信息

International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Carretera México-Veracruz Km. 45, El Batan, Texcoco, Mexico.

International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), NARC, Park Road, Islamabad, Pakistan.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2018 Oct 16;4(10):e00797. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2018.e00797. eCollection 2018 Oct.

Abstract

Using the primary datasets collected from 700 livestock farmers from all four major provinces of Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit Baltistan, this paper analyzes the impact of climate-change risk coping strategies on household welfare. A Poisson regression model was used to estimate the determinants of the livestock ownership and multivariate probit model to assess the determinants of the measures taken to manage the climatic-risk challenge for livestock. A propensity score matching approach (PSM) was used to assess the impact of the adopted climate-risk management strategies on livestock farmers. Findings indicated that in Pakistan livestock farmers generally adopt four main types of strategies to cope with climate risk: livestock insurance, selling of livestock, allocation of more land area for fodder and migration. The results show that age, education, wealth, access to extension services, and membership in NGOs, influence the livestock farmers' choice of climate-risk-coping mechanisms. The livestock farmers who adopted risk-coping mechanisms generally fared better. Increasing the land area allocated to fodder seems to increase production of milk and butter, resulting in higher income and lower poverty levels. Those who bought insurance had more milk production and a lower poverty level, while those who sold livestock to cope with climate risk decreased production but increased household income and lowered poverty levels. Migration seems to have a negative impact on production and income. Impact assessments confirm that purchasing livestock insurance and increasing fodder areas are more effective compared to the selling of livestock and migration. Agricultural climate policy should focus on creating awareness as well as increasing access to extension services among livestock farmers on climate risk and risk-coping strategies to mitigate the impact on rural livelihoods.

摘要

利用从巴基斯坦所有四个主要省份以及阿扎德克什米尔和吉尔吉特 - 巴尔蒂斯坦的700名畜牧农民收集的原始数据集,本文分析了气候变化风险应对策略对家庭福利的影响。采用泊松回归模型估计牲畜所有权的决定因素,采用多元概率单位模型评估为应对牲畜气候风险挑战而采取措施的决定因素。使用倾向得分匹配方法(PSM)评估所采用的气候风险管理策略对畜牧农民的影响。研究结果表明,在巴基斯坦,畜牧农民通常采用四种主要策略来应对气候风险:牲畜保险、出售牲畜、为饲料分配更多土地面积以及迁移。结果表明,年龄、教育程度、财富、获得推广服务的机会以及非政府组织成员身份会影响畜牧农民对气候风险应对机制的选择。采用风险应对机制的畜牧农民总体表现更好。增加分配给饲料的土地面积似乎会增加牛奶和黄油的产量,从而带来更高的收入和更低的贫困水平。购买保险的人牛奶产量更高,贫困水平更低,而那些为应对气候风险而出售牲畜的人产量下降,但家庭收入增加,贫困水平降低。迁移似乎对生产和收入有负面影响。影响评估证实,与出售牲畜和迁移相比,购买牲畜保险和增加饲料面积更有效。农业气候政策应注重提高畜牧农民对气候风险和风险应对策略的认识,并增加他们获得推广服务的机会,以减轻对农村生计的影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2404/6197305/368d4fecc521/gr1.jpg

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