Usman Muhammad, Ali Asghar, Rosak-Szyrocka Joanna, Pilař Ladislav, Baig Sajjad Ahmad, Akram Rimsha, Wudil Abdulazeez Hudu
Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan.
Faculty of Management, Czestochowa University of Technology, 42-200, Czestochowa, Poland.
Heliyon. 2023 Jun 3;9(6):e16983. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e16983. eCollection 2023 Jun.
Rural people, particularly in developing nations, rely on livestock as a key source of income. In Pakistan, rural people depend profoundly on buffalo, cows, sheep, and goats to earn their livelihood. The systems of agricultural production are at risk because of the negative effects of climate change. It badly affects production and quality of milk and meat, animal health, productivity, breeding, feed, and rangelands of livestock production. Climate change risks assessment and adaptation are required to minimize losses from these effects, which are not just technical but also socioeconomically significant. Hence, based on data collected from 1080 livestock herders using a multistage sampling technique in Punjab, Pakistan this study aims to assess perceived impact of climate change on livestock production and to assess coping strategies. In addition, determinants of adaptation strategies and their effects on livestock production was also estimated. Binary Logistic Regression was used to identify the drivers of adaptation strategies. In addition, Multi Group Analysis (MGA) in Partial Least Squares Path Modelling (PLS-PM) was applied to compare adapter and non-adapter of climate change adaptation strategies. Findings indicated that there are spread of various diseases to livestock due to adverse effects of climatic variability. There was reduction in the availability of the livestock's feed. Moreover, competition of water and land resources of livestock was also increasing. Low production efficiency resulted in decline of milk yield and meat production. Likewise, mortality of livestock, increased in still births, reduction in reproductive performance, decline in animal fertility, longevity, and general fitness, decreased birthing rates, rises in age at foremost calving in beef cattle was also prevailing. There were different adaptation policies used by farmers to handle with climate change and these were influenced by several demographic, socioeconomic, and agronomic aspects. Findings indicated that nexus of risk perception, adaptation plans and their determinants are beneficial to reduce the consequences of climatic variability and it improve the wellbeing of the herders. Risk management system may be created to protect livestock against losses caused by extreme weather events by providing awareness regarding influence of climate change on livestock. Easy and cheaper credit should be provided to the farmers to manage with the vulnerabilities of climate change.
农村人口，尤其是发展中国家的农村人口，依赖牲畜作为主要收入来源。在巴基斯坦，农村人口深切依赖水牛、奶牛、绵羊和山羊来维持生计。由于气候变化的负面影响，农业生产系统面临风险。气候变化严重影响牛奶和肉类的产量与质量、动物健康、生产力、繁殖、饲料以及畜牧生产的牧场。需要进行气候变化风险评估和适应措施，以尽量减少这些影响造成的损失，这些影响不仅在技术方面，而且在社会经济方面都具有重要意义。因此，本研究基于在巴基斯坦旁遮普省采用多阶段抽样技术从1080名牲畜养殖户收集的数据，旨在评估气候变化对畜牧生产的感知影响，并评估应对策略。此外，还估计了适应策略的决定因素及其对畜牧生产的影响。使用二元逻辑回归来确定适应策略的驱动因素。此外，在偏最小二乘路径建模（PLS-PM）中应用多组分析（MGA）来比较气候变化适应策略的采用者和未采用者。研究结果表明，由于气候多变性的不利影响，各种疾病在牲畜中传播。牲畜饲料的可获得性减少。此外，牲畜对水和土地资源的竞争也在增加。生产效率低下导致牛奶产量和肉类产量下降。同样，牲畜死亡率、死胎增加、繁殖性能下降、动物生育率、寿命和总体健康状况下降、出生率降低、肉牛首次产犊年龄上升等情况也很普遍。农民采用了不同的适应政策来应对气候变化，这些政策受到若干人口、社会经济和农艺方面因素的影响。研究结果表明，风险感知、适应计划及其决定因素之间的联系有利于减少气候多变性的后果，并改善牧民的福祉。可以建立风险管理系统，通过提高对气候变化对牲畜影响的认识来保护牲畜免受极端天气事件造成的损失。应该向农民提供简便且成本较低的信贷，以应对气候变化的脆弱性。
