Department of Intervention and Vascular Surgery, Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Suzhou Cancer Medical Center, Suzhou, Jiangsu, 215001, China.
Department of Radiation Oncology, Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Suzhou Cancer Medical Center, Suzhou, Jiangsu, 215001, China.
Int J Surg. 2018 Dec;60:1-8. doi: 10.1016/j.ijsu.2018.10.032. Epub 2018 Oct 24.
The aim of this study was to develop and validate nomograms for individual risk prediction in patients with liver-only colorectal metastases (CRLM).
Histologically confirmed CRLM diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were analysed from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to obtain independent prognostic factors to build nomograms for predicting 1- and 3-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots.
A total of 9615 patients with CRLM were included in the study. A nomogram predicting OS was constructed according to 9 independent clinicopathological factors. A nomogram predicting CSS was constructed based on the same 9 factors. The C-indexes of the nomograms were significantly better than the TNM staging system (7th edition) in both sets for predicting both OS and CSS. The calibration plots displayed an optimal agreement between the predictive results and the actual observed outcomes.
The proposed nomograms can help clinicians calculate the probability in patients with CRLM.
本研究旨在开发并验证用于预测仅有肝脏结直肠癌转移（CRLM）患者个体风险的列线图。
本研究分析了 2010 年至 2015 年间来自监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库的经组织学证实的 CRLM。采用单因素和多因素分析获得独立的预后因素，以建立预测 1 年和 3 年总生存（OS）和癌症特异性生存（CSS）的列线图。通过一致性指数（C 指数）和校准图来确定列线图的预测准确性。
本研究共纳入 9615 例 CRLM 患者。根据 9 个独立的临床病理因素构建了预测 OS 的列线图。根据相同的 9 个因素构建了预测 CSS 的列线图。在两组中，列线图的 C 指数在预测 OS 和 CSS 方面均明显优于 TNM 分期系统（第 7 版）。校准图显示预测结果与实际观察结果之间存在最佳一致性。
本研究提出的列线图可以帮助临床医生计算 CRLM 患者的概率。
