Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, PO Box 2040, 3000 CA, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Int J Behav Nutr Phys Act. 2018 Nov 1;15(1):107. doi: 10.1186/s12966-018-0740-y.
Income inequalities in sports participation are shaped by a system in which individuals and the environment interact. We developed an agent-based model (ABM) that could represent this system and used it to provide a proof-of-concept of its potential to explore the impact of individual and environmental interventions on reducing inequalities in sports participation.
Our ABM simulates sports participation of individuals in the Dutch city of Eindhoven. In the model, sports participation is determined by an individual's tendency to start sports (at a fitness center, sports club or self-organized), which is influenced by attributes of individuals (i.e. age, sex, income), sports facilities (i.e. price, accessibility) and the social environment (i.e. social cohesion, social influence). Sports facilities can adapt to changes in the demand by closures or startups, which in turn influence the tendency of individuals to participate in sport. We explored the impact of five interventions scenarios.
Explorative results show that providing health education, increasing the availability of sports facilities, lowering prices of facilities and improving safety levels can increase sports participation and modestly reduce absolute income inequalities in sports participation. The largest gain can be attained through health education, if the effect and reach is sufficiently large. Environmental interventions alone have a modest impact. Marked effects are only achieved after five to 10 years.
ABMs have much potential to test the population-level effects of various interventions in the context of a system. Our study highlights the challenges of ABM development and reveals gaps in empirical data. With further refinements, our model could aid in understanding and finding optimal pathways to reduce income inequalities in sports participation.
体育参与中的收入不平等是由个人和环境相互作用的系统所塑造的。我们开发了一个基于代理的模型（ABM），可以表示该系统，并使用它来提供概念验证，以探索个体和环境干预措施对减少体育参与不平等的影响。
我们的 ABM 模拟了荷兰埃因霍温市个体的体育参与。在模型中，体育参与由个人开始运动的倾向决定（在健身中心、体育俱乐部或自我组织中），这受到个人属性（即年龄、性别、收入）、体育设施（即价格、可及性）和社会环境（即社会凝聚力、社会影响）的影响。体育设施可以通过关闭或启动来适应需求的变化，这反过来又会影响个人参与运动的倾向。我们探索了五种干预情景的影响。
探索性结果表明，提供健康教育、增加体育设施的可用性、降低设施价格和提高安全水平可以增加体育参与，并适度减少体育参与中的绝对收入不平等。如果效果和覆盖面足够大，通过健康教育可以获得最大的收益。环境干预单独的影响有限。只有经过五到十年才能取得显著效果。
ABM 在系统背景下测试各种干预措施的人群效应具有很大的潜力。我们的研究强调了 ABM 开发的挑战，并揭示了经验数据的差距。通过进一步的改进，我们的模型可以帮助理解和找到减少体育参与收入不平等的最佳途径。
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