Consistency Between Opioid-Related Mortality Trends Derived From Poison Center and National Vital Statistics System, United States, 2006-2016.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the association between poison center opioid exposure calls and National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) deaths.

METHODS

We categorized Centers for Disease Control and Prevention NVSS mortality and the Researched Abuse, Diversion and Addiction-Related Surveillance System poison center program cases from 2006 to 2016 by International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, codes (heroin [T40.1]; natural or semisynthetic opioids [T40.2]; methadone [T40.3]; synthetic opioids, other than methadone [T40.4]). We scaled rates by 100 000 population and calculated Pearson correlation coefficients. Sensitivity analysis excluded polysubstance cases involving either heroin or synthetic opioids as well as natural and semisynthetic opioids.

RESULTS

The NVSS mortality and poison center program exposure rates showed similar trends from 2006 to 2012, and diverged after 2012 for all opioids combined, natural and semisynthetic opioids, and synthetic opioids (r = -0.37, -0.12, and 0.30, respectively). Sensitivity analysis with removal of heroin or synthetic opioid polysubstance deaths markedly improved correlations for all opioids combined and natural and semisynthetic opioids (r = 0.87 and 0.36, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The NVSS mortality and poison center exposure rates showed similar trends from 2006 to 2012 then diverged, with sensitivity analysis suggesting polysubstance cases also involving heroin or illicit fentanyl as the cause. Public Health Implications. The NVSS and poison center program may provide complementary data when trends diverge. Public health interventions must include both licit and illicit opioids for maximal impact.