Department of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI, United States of America.
Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2018 Nov 20;13(11):e0207484. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0207484. eCollection 2018.
When making decisions under uncertainty, individuals may form subjective expectations about probabilities of events relevant for their choice. Accurate measurement of subjective expectations is critical for high-quality data needed to analyze individual behavior. This paper reports the development and validity of a new method of eliciting point subjective expectations in developing countries. We developed a touchscreen-based application that combines an animated slider along with dynamic images that change relative sizes based on the probability indicated by the respondent. We compare our method to the more traditional approach of using beans as visual aids. First, we find that respondents have a sound understanding of basic concepts of probability. Second, we test for equality of the distributions elicited with the different methods and find them highly comparable. Third, we provide evidence that respondents report a more favorable opinion about the slider method and more willingness to complete long surveys using the slider rather than beans. Our findings suggest that the slider could be a viable elicitation method for empirical researchers who aim to collect data on subjective expectations in developing countries.
当在不确定的情况下做出决策时，个体可能会对与他们的选择相关的事件的概率形成主观预期。准确测量主观预期对于分析个体行为所需的高质量数据至关重要。本文报告了一种在发展中国家引出点主观预期的新方法的开发和有效性。我们开发了一种基于触摸屏的应用程序，该应用程序结合了一个动画滑块和动态图像，这些图像根据受访者指示的概率改变相对大小。我们将我们的方法与使用豆子作为视觉辅助工具的传统方法进行了比较。首先，我们发现受访者对概率的基本概念有很好的理解。其次，我们测试了不同方法引出的分布是否相等，并发现它们非常相似。第三，我们提供了证据表明，受访者对滑块方法的评价更有利，并且更愿意使用滑块而不是豆子来完成长调查。我们的研究结果表明，对于旨在收集发展中国家主观预期数据的实证研究人员来说，滑块可能是一种可行的引出方法。
