Hurd Michael D
RAND and NBER October, 2008.
Annu Rev Econom. 2009 Jun 1;1:543-562. doi: 10.1146/annurev.economics.050708.142955.
Subjective probabilities are now collected on a number of large household surveys with the objective of providing data to better understand inter-temporal decision making. Comparison of subjective probabilities with actual outcomes shows that the probabilities have considerable predictive power in situations where individuals have considerable private information such as survival and retirement. In contrast the subjective probability of a stock market gain varies greatly across individuals even though no one has private information and the outcome is the same for everyone. An explanation is that there is considerable variation in accessing and processing information. Further, the subjective probability of a stock market gain is considerably lower than historical averages, providing an explanation for the relatively low frequency of stock holding. An important research objective will be to understand how individuals form their subjective probabilities.
现在，在一些大型家庭调查中收集主观概率，目的是提供数据以更好地理解跨期决策。主观概率与实际结果的比较表明，在个人拥有大量私人信息（如生存和退休）的情况下，这些概率具有相当大的预测能力。相比之下，尽管没有人拥有私人信息且结果对每个人都是相同的，但股票市场上涨的主观概率在个体之间差异很大。一种解释是在获取和处理信息方面存在相当大的差异。此外，股票市场上涨的主观概率远低于历史平均水平，这为股票持有频率相对较低提供了解释。一个重要的研究目标将是了解个人如何形成他们的主观概率。
