Departamento de Engenharia Hidráulica e Recursos Hídricos, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.
Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
PLoS One. 2018 Dec 5;13(12):e0207855. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0207855. eCollection 2018.
Brazil recently began granting timber concessions in public forests to promote sustainable forest use. The effectiveness of this strategy hinges on the design and implementation of the concessions themselves as well as their competitive position within the logging sector as a whole. There is, however, a lack of information on the competitive interaction between legal and illegal logging and its effects on concessions profits. We address this knowledge gap by using a spatially explicit simulation model of the Amazon timber industry to examine the potential impact of illegal logging on timber concessions allocation and profits in a 30-year harvest cycle. In a scenario in which illegal logging takes place outside concessions, including private and public "undesignated" lands, concession harvested area would decrease by 59% due to competition with illegal logging. Moreover, 29 out of 39 National Forests (≈74%) would experience a decrease in harvested area. This "leakage" effect could reduce concession net rents by up to USD 1.3 Billion after 30 years. Federal and State "undesignated" lands, if not adequately protected, could have 40% of their total volume illegally harvested in 30 years. Our results reinforce the need to invest in tackling illegal logging, if the government wants the forest concessions program to be successful.
巴西最近开始在公共森林中授予木材特许权，以促进可持续森林利用。该策略的有效性取决于特许权的设计和实施，以及它们在整个伐木行业中的竞争地位。然而，对于合法和非法伐木之间的竞争互动及其对特许权利润的影响，我们缺乏相关信息。我们使用亚马逊木材工业的空间明确模拟模型来解决这一知识差距，以研究非法伐木对 30 年采伐周期内木材特许权分配和利润的潜在影响。在非法伐木发生在特许权之外的情况下，包括私人和公共“未指定”土地，特许权的采伐面积将因与非法伐木的竞争而减少 59%。此外，39 个国家森林中有 29 个（约 74%）的采伐面积将减少。这种“渗漏”效应可能会在 30 年后使特许权净租金减少 13 亿美元。如果未得到充分保护，联邦和州“未指定”土地在 30 年内可能会有 40%的总蓄积量被非法采伐。如果政府希望森林特许权计划取得成功，我们的研究结果强调了必须投资于打击非法伐木。
