School of Construction Management and Real Estate, International Research Center for Sustainable Built Environment, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China.
School of Computing Engineering and Mathematics, Western Sydney University, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Mar 15;656:576-588. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.384. Epub 2018 Nov 27.
The world has witnessed unparalleled economic development over the past decades, but accompanied by large amount of carbon emissions, which triggered the global warming. It is critical for the global sustainable development by decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions at country level, specifically for the largest emitter, China. This study conducts a decoupling analysis from the perspective of carbon intensity (CI), per capita carbon emissions (PC) and total carbon emissions (TC) with reference to 30 Chinese provinces, covering the period of 2001-2015. Based on the Log Mean Divisa Index (LMDI) method, the effects of energy structure (ES), energy intensity (EI), economic output (EO) and population size (P) on TC at provincial level are investigated. Results show that: (1) a strong decoupling relation between GDP and CI is found in most provinces except Hainan, Qinghai and Xinjiang, while there is large room for China to decouple completely from PC and TC; (2) EO and EI are the dominated inhibiting and promoting factors respectively for carbon emission reduction; (3) ES effect on increasing carbon emission changes between positive and negative, while P has a positive but insignificant effect on the increase of carbon emissions for most provinces. The results help local governments formulate measures to coordinate regional economic development and carbon emission reduction.
过去几十年，世界见证了前所未有的经济发展，但也伴随着大量的碳排放，引发了全球变暖。在国家层面上使经济增长与碳排放脱钩，对于全球可持续发展至关重要，特别是对于最大的排放国中国而言。本研究参考了中国的 30 个省份，涵盖了 2001-2015 年的数据，从碳强度（CI）、人均碳排放量（PC）和总碳排放量（TC）的角度进行了脱钩分析。基于对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）方法，研究了能源结构（ES）、能源强度（EI）、经济产出（EO）和人口规模（P）对省级 TC 的影响。结果表明：（1）除海南、青海和新疆外，大部分省份的 GDP 与 CI 之间存在较强的脱钩关系，而中国完全实现 PC 和 TC 脱钩仍有很大空间；（2）EO 和 EI 分别是减排的主要抑制和促进因素；（3）ES 对增加碳排放的影响在正负之间变化，而 P 对大多数省份的碳排放增加有正向但不显著的影响。研究结果有助于地方政府制定协调区域经济发展和碳排放减排的措施。
