Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Edificio Porta dell'Innovazione - Piano 2, Via della Libertà, 12, 30175, Marghera, Venice, VE, Italy; University College London, Department of Political Science, 29/31 Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9QU.
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Edificio Porta dell'Innovazione - Piano 2, Via della Libertà, 12, 30175, Marghera, Venice, VE, Italy; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Isola di San Giorgio Maggiore 8, 30124 Venice, VE, Italy.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Mar 15;656:691-700. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.341. Epub 2018 Nov 24.
Raising interest in 'nature-based solutions' (NBS) has inspired attempts to organise their principles and qualities within comprehensive and internally consistent evaluation frameworks, so as to demonstrate the superior performance of 'working with nature'. However, the proposed frameworks stop short of taking into account the changing conditions in which NBS are set to operate. Climate change, in particular, can alter ecosystems and their services, and may undermine the performance of green solutions that rely on them. We present here a 'dynamic' assessment framework that explicitly accounts for the impact of climate change on the effectiveness of the proposed NBS. The framework is based on an innovative approach that integrates system analysis and backcasting. Although it has not yet been applied to the NBS context, backcasting is well-suited to seize the transformational character of NBS, as it encourages 'breakthrough' leaps rather than incremental improvements. Our framework factors in the multifunctional character of NBS and is designed to capture associated direct benefits/costs and co-benefits/costs. It is meant to be applied ex ante to ideally support the choice between innovative NBS and traditional options, in an effort to respond to the societal challenges identified by the EU Research & Innovation agenda on the environment.
提高对“基于自然的解决方案”（NBS）的兴趣激发了人们尝试在综合且内部一致的评估框架内组织其原则和质量，以展示“与自然合作”的卓越表现。然而，所提出的框架并未考虑到 NBS 将要运行的条件变化。特别是气候变化会改变生态系统及其服务，可能会破坏依赖它们的绿色解决方案的性能。我们在这里提出了一个“动态”评估框架，该框架明确考虑了气候变化对拟议 NBS 有效性的影响。该框架基于一种创新方法，该方法结合了系统分析和反向预测。尽管它尚未应用于 NBS 背景，但反向预测非常适合抓住 NBS 的变革特征，因为它鼓励“突破”飞跃，而不是渐进式改进。我们的框架考虑了 NBS 的多功能性，并旨在捕获相关的直接收益/成本和共同收益/成本。它旨在预先应用，以在创新的 NBS 和传统方案之间进行选择，从而应对欧盟环境研究与创新议程确定的社会挑战。
