Optimizing Genomic Selection for a Sorghum Breeding Program in Haiti: A Simulation Study.

Young breeding programs in developing countries, like the Chibas sorghum breeding program in Haiti, face the challenge of increasing genetic gain with limited resources. Implementing genomic selection (GS) could increase genetic gain, but optimization of GS is needed to account for these programs' unique challenges and advantages. Here, we used simulations to identify conditions under which genomic-assisted recurrent selection (GARS) would be more effective than phenotypic recurrent selection (PRS) in small new breeding programs. We compared genetic gain, cost per unit gain, genetic variance, and prediction accuracy of GARS (two or three cycles per year) PRS (one cycle per year) assuming various breeding population sizes and trait genetic architectures. For oligogenic architecture, the maximum relative genetic gain advantage of GARS over PRS was 12-88%, which was observed only during the first few cycles. For the polygenic architecture, GARS provided maximum relative genetic gain advantage of 26-165%, and was always superior to PRS. Average prediction accuracy declines substantially after several cycles of selection, suggesting the prediction models should be updated regularly. Updating prediction models every year increased the genetic gain by up to 33-39% compared to no-update scenarios. For small populations and oligogenic traits, cost per unit gain was lower in PRS than GARS. However, with larger populations and polygenic traits cost per unit gain was up to 67% lower in GARS than PRS. Collectively, the simulations suggest that GARS could increase the genetic gain in small young breeding programs by accelerating the breeding cycles and enabling evaluation of larger populations.